The March to 85

We almost feel guilty for having a blog that virtually writes itself; therefore, we will only take credit for setting up the web server and learning how to use WordPress.

If you have been here before you know that we have mentioned the fact that Alabama and Nick Saban went over their recruiting budget this year and have to shed some players in order to get down to 85. 

Quick Recap:
Alabama had 66 players returning on scholarship on signing day and accepted 29 signed letters of intent.  This puts them at 95.  In order to deal with the 25 per class limit, 11 of the 29 enrolled early and count towards last year's numbers, leaving 18 to assign to this class.  The problem is that if you have 66 and you add 11, that gives you 77.  85-77 = 8.   Meaning, Alabama has signed letters of commitment from 18 players with only 8 spots available before they hit the 85 limit.  Therefore, the magic number is 10.  (note: scout.com has verified and marked 29 recruits signing letters of intent - that is the number on their site and the number we are using here.)

Bottom line: between now and August players will need to transfer, quit, take a medical hardship, or violate unspecified team rules and be removed from the team in order to get the roster to 85 scholarship players.  

Robby Green, understanding the value of being a team player, decided to step to the plate first.  The details are sketchy at best; all we know is that there is a "situation" developing with Robby Green.

"There is a situation with Robby and we are currently in the process of determining the facts," Saban said in a written statement that was issued after reports surfaced that Green has been suspended for violating team rules.

"To make any kind of announcement on his playing status at this time is completely premature and it is not appropriate to do so until we have a chance to go through due process for Robby and his family.

"If there is a change in his current status, we will make an announcement once a final determination is made."

http://www.rollbamaroll.com/2010/2/18/1316453/2010/2/18/1316453/robby-green-suspended-not-good

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Here's where it gets interesting.  Robby Green is not a stiff.  He played in all 14 games last year for Alabama, albeit in a back-up/co-starter type roll.  Regardless, he played, so it's not like he's dead weight.  However, it should be noted that Alabama has signed 7 defensive backfield players in the last two classes (with 2 5-star studs and 4 4-star players).  So it's not like there is no one waiting in the wings.

There are two main reasons for oversigning:

1. To bring in better talent faster and shove lesser talent to the door.
2. To provide a safety net in case a player you would normally like to keep does something stupid and you have to kick him off the team.

Either way, programs that oversign are able to cushion the blow somewhat by not having to wait until the next recruiting class to fill the hole left by the player removed from the team.  Instead they just plug the next guy in and the number they need to shed is reduced.

Most programs, not facing the problem of having to shed players from a recruiting class, would be freaking out at the gaping hole in their 2-deep roster now that one of their more experienced players could be gone and they have to wait until next year to make up for the loss.

Green is not gone yet, but we'll keep on eye on the situation.  For now, the magic number remains 10.