More Tables, Cups, and Comparisons

After the jump there is a copy of our master table for the recruiting numbers from 2002 to 2010.  We have inserted a column to record the Fulmer Cup Points associated with each school.  For those of you who are not familiar with the Fulmer Cup, it was created by the brain-trust at EDSBS, Orson Swindle.  Wiki!!! 

Now that we have that out of the way, disclaimer time: 

First, before anyone gets upset or questions our credibility for using the Fulmer Cup data, we know exactly what it is and we know that it is not a complete police blotter for every single school in the BCS.  No such thing exists.  It is however, fairly accurate for arriving at somewhat plausible generalizations.   For example, if a certain schools has high Fulmer Cup points, you could take the time and track down the police records and validate that there has been a fairly high level of crime associated with that school during the period in question. 

So the generalization goes as follows: higher points = higher criminal activity; lower points = lower criminal activity.  

Second, the awarding of points in the Fulmer Cup is done in such a way to determine which schools have the highest amount of criminal activity, not which school commits the worst crime.  If you want to know exactly how it works, go here. 

Third, Fulmer Cup points are only awarded to players on the roster who commit crimes during the off season.  This is very important for two reasons: 1.) this is usually when you see all of the attrition we talk about on this site, 2.) there could be crimes that happen during the season that would attribute to a school's profile of having a lot of criminal activity on the football team, but because it happened in the off season it didn't count.  Therefore, teams with 0 points might have had a problem during the season that is not reflected here.  Remember, the Fulmer Cup only tracks criminal activity during the off season.  That said, we will still work under the assumption that the Fulmer Cup points are a fairly accurate depiction of a school's profile.  If you disagree and have proof of a school with TONS of criminal activity during the regular season, send it in and we'll post it.  

Analysis:

The first thing we notice in looking at the numbers is that in the middle of our table there is no rhyme or reason to anything.  For example, Arizona State and Washington State, they both signed the EXACT same number of players during the 2002 - 2010 period, they are both in the same conference, and yet Washington State has 27 Fulmer Cup points and Arizona State has 0.  At first glance, you could look at that and draw the conclusion that there is absolutely no connection between oversigning and off season crime by the football players.

However, when you look at the top 10 teams and the bottom 10 teams the picture becomes very clear.  The top 10 schools combined for a total of 188 Fulmer Cup points, while the bottom 10 teams combined for 80 points, 38 of which came from one school Penn State.  Take out Penn State, the statistical anomaly, and you are looking at 188 points to 42 points.  Now we are getting somewhere.  And it makes sense. 

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With that data, we can generally conclude that teams at the upper end of the oversigning board also tend to have higher criminal issues than teams at the bottom end.  Rocket science we know.  However, we wanted to dispel the notion that schools that oversign the most are doing so because they have a lot of kids transfer out to better opportunities at other schools or that oversigning is taking place purely because of academics.  The truth of the matter is that these schools, in addition to dealing with academically borderline students, are also fighting problems with losing players to criminal activity or character issues.

The next thing that sticks out is the difference between the SEC and the ACC.  In terms of conference standings in the Fulmer Cup, the SEC ranks 1st with 243 Points and 1 Cup (Alabama in 2009), meanwhile, the ACC stands at 5th 96 points and 0 Cups.  These two conferences are on the exact opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to oversigning.  The ACC has the lowest number of players signed of all BCS conferences, while the SEC has the highest.  Draw your own conclusion there.

By the way, the PAC 10 stands at 7th with 76 points 0 Cups and is 4th on the oversigning chart. 

The last thing that we really want to get into is the comparison between, you guessed it, the SEC and the Big 10.  STOP RIGHT THERE.  Before you assume that this is all about comparing those two conferences and putting one on a pedestal and taking shots at the other, that is not what this is about.  This is about trying to understand the differences between the opposite ends of the spectrum.  The spectrum being oversigning.  The SEC is on one end and the Big 10 is on the other.  HOWEVER, and this is where it really gets interesting, the SEC and the Big 10 are 1 and 2 in the Fulmer Cup.  The SEC has 243 points and 1 Cup, as we mentioned earlier, and the Big 10 has 203 points and 1 Cup.

If you agree with us so far that higher Fulmer Cup points =higher criminal activity = higher attrition = more signing of players, then how do we explain the difference between the SEC and the Big 10?

One theory is that perhaps the severity of the crimes is higher in the SEC and warrant the removal of the players more often than in the Big 10.  Maybe there are more felonies taking place in the SEC which means the players have to be removed which ultimately creates the need to sign more players.  While on the other hand, if the crimes are more misdemeanor in nature the player stands a better chance of being able to stay on the team and work through his problems. 

Simply put...we don't have enough data to answer that question.  It would be great to know exactly how many players were kicked off each team because of criminal activity and how many committed criminal activity and stayed on the team.

Another theory is that the level of crimes is equal and the same amount of players from both conferences are being kicked off the teams.   This would lead one to believe that the SEC is better able to replace those players due to oversigning, while the Big 10 suffers through the losses because they are unable to oversign due to conference rules.  Again without more data it is really hard to say that without a doubt that is what is going on...could very well be though.

The last theory, and the one we tend to lean to the most, is that the overall level of crimes is equal (within reason), but there is a fundamental difference in the dealing with the players.  Some coaches might see a player's off the field issue as an opportunity to remove the player and in the process upgrade in talent; while other coaches might be more inclined to keep the player around, if possible legally, and rehabilitate the player and "make a man of him" instead of throwing him to the curb and upgrading in talent.

These are just theories.  It is extremely hard to judge for sure, but there is no denying the numbers, both for oversigning and for the Fulmer Cup.  They are real and tangible, so there is something there, it's just really, really hard to nail down exactly what is going on. 

Again, this is not an exact science, you would have to have a team of 20 people working 40 hours a week for a month of Sundays to track down every single crime for every single school and assign it a point value in order to be 100% accurate.  The Fulmer Cup gives us a snapshot of that data.  It is tracked by thousands of fans across the country and Orson does a pretty good job of making sure the Cup is fairly accurate and reliable.

What are your theories? 

Fulmer Cup Comparison