Oversigning.com
7Jun/11245

Alabama’s March to 85 – 2011

Right on queue, just a couple of days after the SEC meetings in Destin where the SEC presidents voted to place a soft cap on the annual signing limits, which by the way does only a little to stop oversigning (the loopholes for counting back and forward still exist and there is nothing to stop a coach who has 16 openings from signing 25 and going over by 9, but we digress), the transfers are starting to pile up at Alabama.  No better time to put up the March to 85 for Alabama.

The real issue is that these transfers are coming after spring ball.  With an oversigned roster, you bring in the new players like Trey DePriest to compete against Petey Smith and Dee Hart to compete against Corey Grant and Demetrius Goode, look to see how everything stacks up, and then after spring tell certain players they will never see playing time.  The extra pressure the oversigning puts on the roster and the fact that no matter what, when a coach oversigns in February, someone will have to leave the team to avoid NCAA rules.   The loophole is that certain coaches have found that they can use the spring to further evaluate players and make decisions.  This is gaming the system and it is forcing kids to downgrade their athletic and academic careers simply because a coach needs to get down to 85.

2011 The March to 85 - Alabama

Player Position Reason for leaving after NSD
Glenn Harbin Defensive Line Decided to play baseball; Link
Demetrius Goode Running Back Transfer to North Alabama; Link
Petey Smith Linebacker Transfer to Holems CC; Link
Brandon Moore Defensive Lineman Transfer to East Mississippi Community College; Link
Corey Grant Running Back Transfer to Auburn; Link
Keiwone Malone Wide Receiver Transfer to Memphis; Link
Robby Green Defensive Back Transfer to California University of Pennsylvania ; Link
Darrington Sentimore Defensive Lineman Transfer to Mississippi Gulf Coast Community College Link
Arron Douglas Offensive Lineman Died during offseason; RIP, hate having to list him here.
Kerry Murphy Defensive Line Medical Hardship
Kendall Kelly Defensive Back Medical Hardship
Wes Neighbors Defensive Back Medical Hardship

2010 The March to 85 - Alabama

Player Position Reason for leaving after NSD
Terry Grant Running Back Scholarship not renewed
Travis Sikes Wide Receiver Scholarship not renewed
Rod Woodson Safety Scholarship not renewed
Star Jackson Quarterback Transfer, Georgia State Div 1AA.
Deion Belue Defensive Back Academically Ineligible; headed to JUCO
Alfy Hill Linebacker Academically Ineligible; future unknown
Taylor Pharr Offensive Lineman Medical Hardship
Milton Talbert Linebacker Medical Hardship
Darius McKeller Offensive Lineman Medical Hardship
Ronnie Carswell Wide Receiver Greyshirt
Wilson Love Defensive End Greyshirt

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  1. Explain to us one more time how this site isn’t just a dedicated hit piece against Alabama?

    • Didn’t you hear? Josh is focusing on a national discussion on oversigning from now on.

    • You say that every time something about Alabama is posted. Can’t help the transfers keep coming.

      • That’s because Alabama is almost the only school you focus on. Are these the only transfers that have been announced this year? Why do they get two posts dedicated to them, when there has not been a single one for any other team’s attrition?

        • Quit your bitching, we had a March to 85 for several schools last year, will probably put more together this year…don’t act like Alabama is the only school that gets mentioned here. They had two back to back transfers just days after the SEC meetings, it’s news.

          • So all that about focusing on a national discussion on oversigning rules was just bs? Can’t say that I’m surprised. Noticed you bragged on twitter about all the rules discussion that was going on on your site, yet neither you nor Marc weighed in on the lifting of the 85 limit discussion. Too busy looking for any news on Alabama transfers.

          • That’s not what this site is focused on. If you want that information go create a site called whyohiostatesucks.com. This is about Oversigning. On that point about TP, he may very well have done those things that you mention. I wouldn’t put it past him. Those are rumors at this point and not facts. Deflection is a skill most practiced in childhood. Time to stop.

            • In regards to oversigning. I too thought that he was above this scandal. Everything he preached lead one to believe this was so. He screwed up royaly. Everyone that makes a mistake should be condemned?

          • Joshua,
            Have you noticed the “Tags” section to the right of the page? Just curious.

      • Just for kicks, when was the last time you wrote something about a player transfering that wasn’t from Alabama? How about that wasn’t from the SEC?

  2. With an oversigned roster, you bring in the new players like Trey DePriest to compete against Petey Smith and Dee Hart to compete against Corey Grant and Demetrius Goode

    Asinine! What a bunch of complete and utter misleading crap. You should know better, and I’m beginning to think you really don’t care. Coaches bring in new players at most positions every year. How many years does OSU or any school go without signing linebackers? Runningbacks? If those kids graduate Highschool early, why should they wait until you say they can enroll to do so? Why can they not start in the spring to better their opportunity and get the most of their experience? Name for me one team in the top 25 that doesn’t have 4-deep runningbacks, or more than that at linebacker. When those four were highly touted recruits, they may likely want out if they aren’t the star. Not always a wise choice, but one that the kids sometimes make.

    …look to see how everything stacks up, and then after spring tell certain players they will never see playing time

    As opposed to what exactly? Ask him to leave before spring practice? Keep in mind that these redshirt freshmen may not have been through a spring practice before. Maybe they expressed a desire to leave before spring and Saban convinced them to stick it out through the spring to make sure. I for one don’t think a transfer this early is good for the kid, but it’s their choice. Also, would you rather Saban lie and tell a kid who isn’t doing well that he is sure to start if he sticks with it? I’m never for misleading them, surely you wouldn’t want that either.

    The extra pressure the oversigning puts on the roster and the fact that no matter what, when a coach oversigns in February, someone will have to leave the team to avoid NCAA rules.

    This is wrong, and coming from you this is approaching an outright lie.

    The loophole is that certain coaches have found that they can use the spring to further evaluate players and make decisions. This is gaming the system and it is forcing kids to downgrade their athletic and academic careers simply because a coach needs to get down to 85.

    Which of these players was “forced to downgrade their athletic and academic career”? I have read several of the stories with quotes from the players, and haven’t seen anything that implicated that they would not have had their scholarship renewed. Every one of these transfers seem to me to be at the player’s request. Have you spoken with them – have they told you otherwise, or are you just assuming again that any attrition from Bama must be forced?

  3. Transfers happen this year all across the country. Is it because players have been deemed inadequate based on the performance in spring practice which ended several weeks ago? Or is it because it’s the end of the school year, and some football players (just like many regular students) have decided that they want to attend a different school next year.

    Alabama has had 3 transfers since the end of spring practice. Is that a lot? Not really. Here’s a list of players that have announced that they are seeking transfers in the past few weeks. I’m sure there’s many more, but this is what a quick google search produced.

    Dorian Bell – Ohio State
    Cody Green – Nebraska
    Brandon Ware – Penn State
    Zach Brown – Wisconsin
    Brandon Clear – Clemson
    Dan Wenger – Notre Dame
    Matt Romine – Notre Dame (scholarship not renewed)
    Washaun Ealey – Georgia
    Mike Blakely – Florida
    Chris Dunkley – Florida
    Javares McRoy – Florida
    Tyler Gabbert – Missouri
    James Capello – Iowa State
    Ryan Williams – Memphis
    Mo Seisay – Memphis
    Storm Johnson – Miami
    Travis Williams – Miami
    Kevin Nelson – Miami
    Jamal Reid – Miami
    Devont’a Davis – Miami
    Marcus Trice – Oklahoma
    Austin Fuller – Virginia Tech
    Tyler Smith – Maryland
    Russell Wilson – North Carolina State

  4. The extra pressure the oversigning puts on the roster and the fact that no matter what, when a coach oversigns in February, someone will have to leave the team to avoid NCAA rules. The loophole is that certain coaches have found that they can use the spring to further evaluate players and make decisions. This is gaming the system and it is forcing kids to downgrade their athletic and academic careers simply because a coach needs to get down to 85.

    Facts:

    1. According to the official oversigning.com Oversigning Cup Standings, Ohio State oversigned by 2 on NSD
    2. Braxton Miller (QB) and Ryan Shazier (LB) were highly-rated recruits who enrolled early at Ohio State and participated in spring training
    3. After the conclusion of spring training, Ohio State players Dorian Bell (LB) and Terrelle Pryor (QB) left the program returning Ohio State to within the 85 scholarship limit

    See, I can spin things too

    • Vesper,
      To compete with Josh, you are going to have to do more than insinuate malfeasance. Your post is completely factually correct. You need some outright accusations.

    • Can you provide a link about Dorian Bell? To my knowledge he is still on the team.

        • That is an old post and not accurate information. He is still enrolled at tOSU and suspended for the entire season for the third offense of an unspecified team rule. Transferring because you can’t stay eligible hardly looks suspicious in my eyes. On that point, the Pittsburgh coach said he wasn’t ineterested in Bell. So Tre, before you link things to further your cause make sure you do adequate research on the topic.
          http://www.pittblather.com/category/football/ May 11th and confirmed that he isn’t leaving yet and Ohio State is not trying to rid themselves of Bell. You can find that information along several posts on Elevenwarriors.com. Go wash some dishes, but bring me a beer first.

          • Bell attested that he was pressured to leave. This kind of evidence would damn Saban. Be fair, guys.

            • Show me that link, please. He hasn’t left and is still on the roster. The only pressure he is feeling is the burden of doing what is right. You can’t blame a coach when you violate the same rule three times. Maybe he feels like they are picking on him and that is the pressure he speaks of. At least in this case, the team has discovered his wrong doing and is holding him accountable.

              I will judge Ohio State fairly when the details and facts are released after August 12th. Eevry team and every man in the world needs to be held accountable for their actions. I just don’t act like everyone else when they hear a rumor and take it as fact. There is a lot of speculation about Pryor but I won’t condemn him for anything about cars or selling signatures. That is still specualtion. He will be condemened for violating rules pertaining to selling merchandise and saying stupid sh!t on a continual basis. I don’t doubt the rumors but to speak as if they are fact only makes you a troll/hater or a truly miserable/bias person. (In my eyes at least)

              As far as oversigning, you have your conferences that sign more every year and have far more transfers, redshirts, and gray shirts than everyone else. The numbers are facts. The reasons for this are not. (in most cases) The fact that a certain coach has the highest number of Medical Scholarships/Hardships being issued from year to year should cause an eye brow to be lifted on every face that is truly concerned about this topic. Regardless of being able to continue their education their has to be a duty to ensure that everything is legit and that nothing nefarious is going on. It ultimately is the NCAA’s responsibility to do this.

              • “…their has to be a duty to ensure that everything is legit and that nothing nefarious is going on.”

                From dictionary.com:
                legitimate – adjective
                1. according to law; lawful: the property’s legitimate owner.
                2. in accordance with established rules, principles, or standards.
                3. born in wedlock or of legally married parents: legitimate children.

                “They” are legit.

              • Somewhere Some very good points here, but you fall victim to them yourself to some degree.

                As far as oversigning, you have your conferences that sign more every year and have far more transfers, redshirts, and gray shirts than everyone else.

                Oversigning, yes. Trans, redshirts, and grayshirts, I don’t know about that. Have you seen this data? I have not, in fact my attrition study (by no means complete or the final word) showed attrition percentages in the SEC to be less that that of the B10. If you have more solid data, please link it.

                The fact that a certain coach has the highest number of Medical Scholarships/Hardships being issued from year to year should cause an eye brow to be lifted on every face that is truly concerned about this topic.

                Again, do you have a source for this? That is certainly the image of Saban put forth, but have you actually seen these numbers for every school? I have not, and the famous WSJ article, while vocally condeming Saban, neglected to post medicals from even one other team. They insinuated that Bamas rate was higher than everyone but the didn’t provide actual numbers or even coome out and say it. If you’ve seen it somewhere else, please link.

                • Sorry Catch 5, I use only the evidence provided by Joshua on this site. Unless it pertains to the team of my following, I don’t do extensive research. Saban has not exactly been forth coming with numbers so I think it would be a hard thing to prove. Just like the exact “March to 85″ theme. Just being as honest as I can.

                  • See, there’s your problem as Josh doesn’t use evidence or do any research either (beyond Alabama).

                    My point is that you have come to a conclusion (Bama uses Medicals more than everybody else) without supporting facts. If you look up this type info for your team, then do so. Compare Bama’s medicals against theirs. While you are at it, see if you can locate a scholarship list from your team. If your team is like most, this information will be just as difficult to obtain as it is at Alabama (moreso with the medicals I bet).

              • What a jackass you are. In one breath you are saying that you are not going to pass judgment on something for which you don’t have all the facts, and in the very next you are doing that very thing WRT a different team. Utterly asinine.

                • Does Alabama have the most medical scholarships in the SEC in the past 4 years? I am not saying that they are guilty of anything. I am saying that it needs to be monitored and paid attention to because the possibility that such an act could be used to manage a roster is present. If that makes me a jackass, then so be it. I could give two flips. Alabama may be on the up and up. Who knows. I am not on the inside of that organization.

                  • Does Alabama have the most medical scholarships in the SEC in the past 4 years?

                    I don’t know. I have not seen the numbers. Yes, the WSJ said Bama had 12 over the previous 4 years, while the SEC together had “at least” 25. While looking at the 2008 recruiting class, I found that Bama had 2 or 3 medicals (can’t remember and don’t have the info with me) while the rest of the SEC had 10. That’s only one class – if the WSJ is correct, the rest of the SEC only has 2 or 3 medicals in the other classes in that time period? That seems a little unlikely.

          • “wash some dishes” -what, are you 12? I just posted a link that talked about a possible transfer. Sorry that i am not completely up on everything OSU, but it isnt my school so i wouldnt be expected to be. Just like you dont know as much at Bama as other people do.

            • True enough but you made accusation. If you are going to make accusation you better be prepared to support it. Above this you will see that the only information I have about a topic I spoke of, was information I gathered from this site. So I am somewhat guilty of the same and I too am not well versed in everything college football, from every team. I am not 12 but it was kind of gratifying making you my…well, putting you in your place for the comment you made. lol

              • learn to read. I made no such accusation. I just posted a link from a newsite that talked about Bell possibly transferring.

                so you didnt put anyone in their “place”. you just made yourself sound ignorant blaming someone for an accusation they didnt make.

                • Learn to read more than one post. Another claimed that both Bell and Pryor were kicked off the team to make room for other players. (Facetious statement) I stated that as far as I knew he was on the team and requested the original poster to link his information. You then linked an article to support his statement, which was wrong, and intern looked like a fool. Now that you have been called out you try to defend yourself by saying that this article you linked was just meant to inform me of “the possibility” There was no mention of “Possible transfer” in the previous posters statement. So pick a side, or if you intend on showing evidence to support a statement make sure that what you submit strengthens your stance. Your dismissed. You may leave for the day.

  5. Your post only proves that over signing is necessary, and most people who have any life experience at all, understand why.

    No coach can predict who is going to stick and who is not; who is going to get injured and who is not; who is going to excel and go to the NFL early and who is not; who is going to have disciplinary problems and who is not and who is going to have academic problems and who is not and who is just going to decide they don’t fit in and who is just going to decide they don’t want to put forth the effort and who is going to decide they would rather play another sport. With your simplistic thinking , the player is always the victim and the big bad program is the evil villain (I’m not sure you’re really that dumb, but it has given you a soap box).

    As of today with Corey Grant, Alabama has lost about 8 underclassmen (NOT counting any academic or disciplinary casualties). Julio Jones, Marcel Darius and Mark Ingram and Kerry Murphy were all stars and Murphy was a starting DL putting the lie to your line that only underperformers “are shown the door, ” and of course, I’m sure getting three all Americans to leave early for the NFL is one of Saban’s master plots. Funny, you never seem to include those in your rants. Murphy was expected to anchor the line this fall.

    Demetrius Goode saw lots of PT in the spring. He and Petey Smith — both highly touted recruits — decided they didn’t want to or couldn’t (a) work harder and move up the depth chart or (b)be patient and wait their turn in the rotation. Some kids make it. Some don’t. That’s the way of the world. It always has been and always will in spite of your Marxist desire to make everything and everybody equal. If an employer hires someone to do a job, but someone comes along that can do the job much better, the employer has a moral obligation to fire the one kid and hire the other, and in fact if you have a business, I’m sure that’s how you would run it, as I’m sure that’s how you run your personal life. Do you buy from the most expensive source or do you buy from the source that gives you the best value? Don’t you have any morals? How dare you fire the underperforming contractor. All you’ve done and continue to do is reveal to anyone with an ounce of logic and reason, how hypocritical you are. Of course, it’s easy to sit behind a computer keyboard and make moralistic pontifications, but it only proves your own hypocrisy, and it proves that in the internet age, any yahoo with a keyboard can set themselves up as an arbiter of morality. Over signing is as necessary in football just like it is in farming. Is the farmer evil because he plants an extra ear of corn to account for the worms. Of course not, but the truth is, only very rarely is a kid asked to leave a program to make room, but so what if it does happen. That’s life. It happens every day to everyone except those who live and bloviate in ivory towers.

  6. I guess you guys missed the previous post where we are trying to get the word out to kids that are facing tough decisions, and in some cases victims of oversigning, to try and get them in touch with Marc so that he can help them.

    • The post that you addressed to two former Alabama players and “others”? If you’re trying to convince us that you’re so concerned about the plight of transfers and not just out to make Alabama look bad, then why did you choose to single out two Alabama players when there have been dozens of transfers the last few weeks?

    • i noticed the point where you are begging players from Alabama to help prove your “conspiracy”

      I didnt see the post where you reached out to players from other schools that are being forced to transfer

    • None of the cases cited are “victims,” and none of the recent transfers at Alabama were forced out due oversigning. They are in fact a perfect example of why oversigning is necessary. Grant, Goode and Smith all looked at the depth chart and saw themselves getting passed over and realized that they either had to work harder or go somewhere the competition wasn’t as stiff. They chose the later. That’s how the world works and attempts to create a utopia where competition doesn’t matter are misguided and simple minded. But it does make for a moral soap box and web traffic.

  7. What Joshua fails to do is actually research info before he posts. All 4 of those transfers were known in December. Officially Scott’s was made known but many boards knew that the others were going. If you go to Tigerdroppings and LSU site Auburn fans were posting the info about Grant and Smith were transferring to a CC so they sould enroll next January at AU. UA fans knew that and I posted info on this site about UA had 5 or 6 were going to transfer back in Jan. But Joshua is like the mainstream press now, all he wants to do is create news that is not there.

    Again Joshua if it makes you feel better go ahead but you would have more credibility if you actually brought facts to the site. But the fact is that CNS and staff tried to get Smith and Grant to stay by waiting until spring to see if they would stay but in the end they would not. These attacks by you is just your frustration that your program has become the poster child of what not to do in CFB. OSU got caught cheating plain and simple and your beloved coach was aware. Now you will take out your unhappiness on UA or other programs to make you feel better and that is exactly what you are doing without facts but again posting your opinion as it is facts.

    Again 3 of those 4 transfers were well known before NSD. AU fans have been rubbing in to UA fans that Smith and Grant, 2 players that also had UA on top were transferring to eventually land at AU. Again you demonstrate you could care less about the truth. Enjoy your fantasy world.

    http://www.tigerdroppings.com/rant/p/24085597/Petey-Smith-Corey-Grant-Others.aspx

    • In Josh’s defense, I don’t think he can be held accountable to read every college football message board on the Internet just to make sure he’s not missing something.

      That said, wow. That’s an illuminating bit of info. Maybe there’s a little something to this notion that coaches have a decent idea of which players are considering a transfer prior to Signing Day after all.

  8. The whole Pryor thing makes OSU fans look like even bigger hypocrites. Getting more difficult to use the “competitive advantage” argument against oversigning when you have professional players. “Do as I say, not as I do.”

    I think that it’s really sad that Pryor was asked to leave to make room for other players. Dorian Bell and Pryor are victims of oversigning. OSU just chews these kids up and spits them out. I hope that both of them have had the opportunity to talk to Marc.

    • Pryor is gone because he is an entitled, immature piece of work. That started long before his days at OSU. Tressel kept him on a fairly tight leash, minimal media interaction after questionable comments and kept him out of the captain spot. Tressel was criticized my media “experts” everywhere for their lack of access. The fans and media are as much to blame as TP is for his sense of entitlement. The heaviest blame goes on his family and mentors growing up for not raising him with humility.

      • Yeah, but really…it’s mostly Ohio State’s fault for their own lack of institutional control. I don’t have anything against OSU, but that football program is going to be a smoking crater when the NCAA gets done with it, and deservedly so. Every now and then a god has to get smacked back down to Earth to learn some humility.

      • If he would have remained on the team, he probably would not have been allowed to play at all this season. So… to make room for the oversigned class, he was prodded to leave.

        It is so sad to see OSU throwing away student athletes… just for the sake of gaining a competitive advantage.

        • Hopefully, Pryor will reach out to Marc to discuss his options. This poor SA has been hung out to dry by a football factory mentality. You wouldn’t see this at Michigan or Northwestern (the B1G schools with superior academics) but, sadly, some of schools with lower academic requirements have a win-at-all cost attitude and treat their SA’s as a commodity. I think Texas Dawg has some research that shows some of the poorer Midwest states like Ohio and Iowa did not develop as fast as other states such as Illinois and Michigan. Therefore, they place too much importance on the success of their football teams as a result of their lower socio-economic and educational status.

          Something must be done to stop this abuse…

    • With the coin TP raked in, I wouldn’t call him a victim. What is public is nothing when compared with what he actually got. Biggest donor was the sugardaddy Sarniak. You’d be amazed at the financial windfall Sarniak’s company got from Columbus money when TP signed with OSU.

      That being said, oversigning and debating the solutions that reduce the impacts on student/athletes is why I come and sometimes contribute to this site.

      I don’t really care what Josh states, no conference or school is innocent. All have oversigned from time to time and there have only been a few cases where it became public that kids were run off to make room for higher potential kids. I’m skeptical that they were the only cases where it actually happened, but that’s just my law of averages opinion.

      • My dad has stories from the 1950s in the ACC. His father was a high school football coach (who spoke multiple languages and did some contract instruction at UNC). A different era entirely in some regards. But in some ways, nothing’s changed.

      • You’d be amazed at the financial windfall Sarniak’s company got from Columbus money when TP signed with OSU

        WOW! I’m not here to bash OSU or even stray from the oversigning topic, but if that is true – WOW! That goes way beyond institutional control (assuming “Columbus money” means from the University).

        • I just think he means that Columbus has people with money who like to see the team do well. Same as any other college town, especially one that doubles as the capital of an affluent state. And frankly, while it might be unseemly, I am not sure there’s anything against the NCAA rules in that assertion, given that Sarniak’s not a guardian and the people who might be tossing money his way probably aren’t official boosters. Now, if Sarniak directs any of that windfall in the direction of a Pryor….

          • I took that as the University paying Sarniak in return for doing whatever it took to get Pryor to go there. If your take is correct it is “better” (in the sense that double by-pass surgery is better than quadruple) but if the whole of Columbus knew where to go to “repay” the person responsible for Pryor’s commitment, then the university should have, and that is lack of I. C.

            • Not arguing that it’s right. But I doubt the NCAA would ever hit a U for businesspeople in Columbus or Tuscaloosa moving business in the direction of businesspeople in the home town of Stud Player. If benefits end up with the Stud Player in some fashion or form, then that’s actionable by the NCAA — but even then, they’re going to focus strictly on the visibility of the benefits and the player-benefactor relationship, as well as the compliance department.

              In the Blake case at UNC, the State Bureau of Investigation jumped into the mix and issued subpoenas to Blake and Wichard for their testimony and bank records. But unless someone at the state level is willing to pull that trigger, the sorts of transactions that 78Lion describes will never see the light of day in an NCAA investigation.

              Don’t know too many government officials who want to drop a real state investigation on the home team, especially a popular one.

              But I agree, it’s stinks.

  9. The March to 40%

    Willie Lowe’s career at Iowa is done – he lost too much muscle mass in the rhadbo scandal, and he can’t stay on the field. That news got buried at the bottom of a press release announcing the departure of another player. Touching send-off.

        • Yeah he’ll try to be back in 2012 first of all. Second of all Iowa is well under the cap and always has been. Hence Iowa routinely gives schollies to three or four walkons per year.

          • yeah, they just seem to burn thru players before graduation.

          • He’s a senior. He might come back and play next year, but he was going to be a back-up this year before the rhabdo. I doubt we’ll see him in an Iowa uniform again.

            Football programs everywhere have a high rate of turn-over. I really could not care less about which team or conference might be worse, and I don’t think the B1G rule really addresses the core problem. When I suggested that the B1G rules do not prevent a school from burning through kids, I was told I was dead wrong. So I looked at Iowa, fresh of their rhabdo scandal. Results below.

            I am not accusing Iowa of running a rogue program. I am just suggesting that the oversigning formula used by J paints a very incomplete picture. The formula’s very useful for his specific context, certainly, but it’s useless for extrapolating broad moral generalities. If I hear one more person say that the rhabdo scandal had nothing to do with thinning the herd because Iowa’s -3 on J’s list, I am going to scream. Fortunately I have a very large yard.

            * * *

            Iowa’s 2002-2008 recruiting classes suffered 40% attrition prior to a senior year. When I asked how they stayed at 85 scholarships with that sort of burn rate, the response from their SBN website was interesting.

            1 – 90% redshirts. That means they should be signing 17-18 a year, not 21-22, assuming no attrition.
            2 – They actually sign kids during the summer who never make the Rivals/Scouts lists, such as long-snappers and the like. Don’t know if that means they’re off J’s radar or not.
            3 – A couple of walk-ons get any remaining scholarships.

            Here’s the really interesting part — the attrition rate divides sharply along red-shirt/no-redshirt lines:

            BHGP: “It usually takes something special to shirk a redshirt at Iowa: Of these last five classes, less than one-quarter of incoming players see the field as freshmen. Those who play as freshmen are generally the most highly-touted athletes, as well: Of the thirteen Rivals four-star recruits in the Iowa Classes of 2006 through 2010, nine played as freshmen. Yet nearly half of the players who have left the program early in the last five years were non-redshirts, when redshirts remain in the program at a rate of 83%. If you take out last year’s freshmen and sophomores (who, as we’ve previously discussed, are still a year or two from reaching full attrition), 13 of 18 players who did not redshirt have left the program early, with only one of those leaving for an early jump to the pros. On the other side of the coin, only two players from the classes of 2006 and 2007 — A.J. Edds and Christian Ballard — avoided a redshirt and left the program in good standing after four years. That’s two in eleven. We’re not just losing players of alarming quantity, we’re losing guys with enormous potential quality, with talent so palpable that they can step onto the field almost immediately, and we’re losing them as redshirt freshmen and sophomores, well before they’ve reached full capacity. For any program, that is unsustainable.”

            So the attrition rate seems to be highest among the best players, and that attrition begins earlier in their athletic career, at least at Iowa, according to the BHGP analysis.

            • that final line should read “Iowa’s most highly rated recruits” rather than “best players”

            • The 40% statistic is almost meaningless. It doesn’t factor in when the student leaves, how big the class sizes are, etc etc. In actuality they are losing what, about 6-9 players each year? Out of 85? Doesn’t seem too terrible.

              But not every highly rated recruit pans out. He’s more upset that Iowa doesn’t seem to be doing a good job of training/developing highly rated players. But then, Iowa’s theme all along has been about player development, as opposed to blue chippers.

              • It seems like interesting content but I’m not following where you’re going with your argument. Of the 13 or so involved in the rhabdo case, atleast half were starters, so I don’t think they were purposely trying to rid themselves of those. Regarding the 11 that didn’t redshirt and 9 that didn’t make it through, I’d be curious to know the remaining names. Off the top of my head I know Cedric Everson and Abe Satterfield were arrested for rape and subsequently kicked off. Dominique Douglas was arrested and kicked off for stealing credit cards.

                Lastly, every guy they sign is on their final list, regardless of rivals star rating. Typically they’ll sign a guy with no rating, and towards the end of the year Rivals or Scout redo their rankings which includes guys who signed but didn’t previously have a rating.

              • 40% is almost meaningless? 4 out of 10 never reach a senior year of eligibility? I take it you’re entirely in the “competitive advantage camp” and don’t much care about the “welfare of the kids” camp.

                Be that as it may… you’re cool with 6 to 9 kids a year?

                I’m an English and history major, so I should probably avoid numbers with an engineer, especially after getting the last attempt so wrong, but I’ll give it a college try. Feel free to correct me.

                85/4 equals 21.25. Add 6 to 9 a year to make up for losses… I get 27.25 to 30.25.

                85/5 equals 17. Add 6 to 9 a year to make up for losses… I get 23 to 26.

                So, a coach which redshirts no one and loses 6 to 9 kids per year in addition to graduation needs to sign 27 to 30 kids per year. A coach which redshirts everyone and loses 6 to 9 kids per year needs to sign 23 to 26….

                Let’s split the difference both ways – 7.5 per year, 50% redshirts. That’s 19.125 plus 7.5 = 26.625.

                Saban signed 27.8 over the last 5 years. All this fuss over 1.175?

                In fact, when you adjust Saban’s signing total for the double-counts and never-qualified, he’s below 26.625.

                Can’t have it both ways, Luke. Unless I blew the math again.

                • Are you assuming that saban never redshirts though? Thats kinda a fallacy.

                  Anyways, here are numbers to think about:
                  Team X – cut 40% of their team after their freshman year. Everyone does 4 years and graduates.

                  Team Y – cuts 40% of their team after their junior year. (or we could say go pro).

                  If you run the numbers, you’ll see a discrepancy of 3 players between team X and team y. As you can see, the TIMING of when a player leaves is an important factor to the attrition percentage.

                  You also just cannot add 6-9 per year to make up for the losses.
                  that would be 23-26, 17, 17 17 17per year. You have to adjust the other senior/junior numbers downward for that. Those 6-9 must come out of the other 5 years also.

                  • So, you’re cool with 6 to 9 a year?

                    • I need to see the data on how many others. 6-9 is about 10%. I know iowa has had some off the field problems recently that have caused people to be kicked off the team. I’d rather see that drop in the long term.

                    • Year -> Signed -> Left Prior to Senior Year

                      2002 -> 22 -> 12
                      2003 -> 22 -> 10
                      2004 -> 21 -> 6 (heading in the right direction?)
                      2005 -> 23 -> 11 (dang)
                      2006 -> 21 -> 7
                      2007 -> 22 -> 8
                      2008 -> 26 -> 13

                      7 years. 157 kids in. 67 out early (added Lowe).

                    • I understand this may be a bit much to ask but do you have any names?

                    • http://oversigning.com/testing/index.php/2011/05/25/new-sec-proposal-on-oversigning-and-roster-management/#comments

                      At the bottom. Did the list it several months ago and have not bothered updating it, so anyone who left recently (Robinson, for example) won’t be on it.

                    • Great! now post the lists for alabama, auburn, arkansas, ole miss, etc, and tell me which is bigger?

                    • For the final time, I am not attempting to make a comparison with Alabama or any other school. If Joshua wants to do that, more power to him. And you, for that matter.

                      I am demonstrating that the B1G rule does not prevent coaches from losing a rather large number of kids prematurely, which some people like to maintain is impossible under the the B1G rule. Verdict: Possible.

                      I am sure ugk will come up with a reasonable explanation for every kid on that list, just as Vesper and C5 have proposed reasonable explanations for every name J likes to toss out.

                      I just find it silly to suggest that one school losing kids is fine but another school losing kids isn’t, purely by virtue of some variations in conference by-law.

                    • Pretty thorough list and I can’t provide answers for everyone. A few of those guys came in after the class of 08 however.

                      Nathan Chandler – Pro
                      Jonathan Zanders – friend of mine, never enrolled
                      Andy Brodell – believe he never left
                      Kyle Williams – raped a few chicks and is doing 38 years
                      Ryan Bain – top 50 recruit that couldn’t beat out 3 stars
                      Alex Kanellis – injuries but think he stuck it out
                      Bryan Bulaga – pro
                      Cedric Everson – raped a chick and awaiting sentencing
                      John Weinke – still on the team
                      Jeff Brinson – got hurt right away and buried on depth chart
                      Jewel Hampton – tore both acl’s
                      Shonn Greene – pro
                      JD Griggs – think he just graduated
                      Amari Spievey – pro
                      Abe Satterfield – raped the same chick Everson did then testified against him
                      Marshal Yanda – graduated with Iowa then pro
                      James Cleveland – transferred to UH, would’ve started at Iowa
                      Dominique Douglas – stole credit cards and posted it on facebook
                      Lance Tillison – graduated with Iowa
                      Brandon Wegher – costarter with Adam Robinson, impregnated several girls
                      Don Schumpert – sophomore this year
                      Anthony Ferguson – injuries
                      Austin Gray – think he was buried

                    • This may doublepost so sorry if it does. Pretty thorough list and I can’t provide answers for everyone. A few of those guys came in after the class of 08 however.
                      Nathan Chandler – Pro
                      Jonathan Zanders – friend of mine, never enrolled
                      Andy Brodell – believe he never left
                      Kyle Williams – raped a few chicks and is doing 38 years
                      Ryan Bain – top 50 recruit that couldn’t beat out 3 stars
                      Alex Kanellis – injuries but think he stuck it out
                      Bryan Bulaga – pro
                      Cedric Everson – raped a chick and awaiting sentencing
                      John Weinke – still on the team
                      Jeff Brinson – got hurt right away and buried on depth chart
                      Jewel Hampton – tore both acl’s
                      Shonn Greene – pro
                      JD Griggs – think he just graduated
                      Amari Spievey – pro
                      Abe Satterfield – raped the same chick Everson did then testified against him
                      Marshal Yanda – graduated with Iowa then pro
                      James Cleveland – transferred to UH, would’ve started at Iowa
                      Dominique Douglas – stole credit cards and posted it on facebook
                      Lance Tillison – graduated with Iowa
                      Brandon Wegher – costarter with Adam Robinson, impregnated several girls
                      Don Schumpert – sophomore this year
                      Anthony Ferguson – injuries
                      Austin Gray – think he was buried

                      I know you’re not arguing for or against so my list is rather pointless.

  10. This still doesn’t does not explain your racist agenda. Please explain what you have against minorities where you want to prevent more from attending a major college.

    • I saw that you posted this statement on a previous thread, too. No one has responded I would be happy to respond: To advocate against oversigning is not equivalent to restricting access by minorities to higher education. Student-athletes do not have a “right” to be admitted to school. Requiring students to achieve a minimum SAT and GPA is not racist. It is true that there are great disparities in educational attainment in the US. If you are stating that standards for admission that yield differential outcomes in acceptance rates are “discriminatory” — you are correct — standards are used to discriminate among applicants on the basis of academic performance and potential. It is not illegal discrimination and it is not racist. In fact, if you look at admission to the top 20 elite schools in the US, “racist” is a charge that probably has much less validity than charging that the schools are “socio-economic classists” and “geographical regionalists”

    • Yeah I heard Joshua say that. He specifically said not to allow oversigning form minorities. /sarcasm You are such a tool to believe that this site is dedicated to that.

  11. Joshua – You say the players leaving the Alabama program is news. You are correct, so why not treat it as news. If you want to claim a news standard rather than opinion or advocacy then perhaps you should review than standards and ethics of journalism, particularly since you so often call others ethics into question.

    Personally I do not consider this a news site, so I so not expect you are going to follow the standards and ethics of journalism. But if you want to use that shield then perhaps you should make an effort to follow those standards.

  12. I think the owner of this site must have been the scrawny little geek who always got picked last to play sand lot football as a kid.

    • Richard, I disagree with Joshua and what this site post as much as anyone, but there is no need for personal attacks. It provides nothing more than fodder for Joshua and his supporters the opportunity to avoid responding to real arguments. There is plenty bad information on this site to attack and refute without needing to resort to name calling.

      • No need for personal attacks? Just what is it that you think Josh is doing? You must be out of your mind.

        • No, I agree that Josh makes plenty of personal attack. But it is easy enough to refute most of his information with facts. Leave the personal attacks to Josh and correct the record with facts.

          • That has become tiresome, Gary. Josh has been hit with enough facts to fill an industrial storage facility and he simply ignores the ones that directly refute his assertions. Frankly, I am astounded that he has gotten national writers to take up his cause. The only way that it makes sense that that happened is if you assume those journalists scoffed at Josh’s highly-amateurish and childish approach to this and decided to take a professional approach to what is otherwise a worthy topic.

            • See there is a perfect example. While this site has certainly grown since it began it is not responsible for the national media covering this topic. Perhaps that is a misconception that Josh does not mind, or perhaps even promulgates.

              There were numerous article about over signing before this site began and there are plenty of articles written with consideration of this site as well.

              What separate some of those professional journalist from Josh is their ability to appear subjective. Some of them are just as guilty of grinding an axe as Josh, they are just smart enough to appear unbiased.

              So set the record straight every opportunity you can.

      • Not a personal attack — just an observation based on experience. I’ve seen plenty of people like this before. They’ve never succeeded at anything in their lives, so they hide behind a keyboard where their true impotence can be hidden, and they latch on to a topic (environmentalism, religion, animal rights, anti-war… oversigning) and set themselves up as self important, morally superior, prophets appointed by God to speak from Mount Sinai to the great unwashed masses, all the while never realizing or simply not caring that most people see them for what they are — just another form of hypocrite who doesn’t live by the ideals they want to impose on everyone else. So yeah, I suspect that there was some personal trauma (wasn’t athletic and didn’t get picked or got beat up by jocks) in this person’s early life that led him to see himself as the arbiter of all things moral in college football.

        • Richard:

          If you go back to the beginning of the blog, you will also see that Josh apparently lives in Bama country and is even married to a Bama girl from a Bama family. I don’t know, but maybe Josh doesn’t care for his in-laws OR his wife? I wonder what they think about his rants and if they support him? I bet not. But in any case, it would certainly explain his otherwise inexplicable need for anonymity.

          • People remain anonymous because otherwise their own moral failings and corrupt motives would be revealed destroying the pseudo, moral high-ground they’ve staked out in their imaginations where they star as comic-book superheroes wearing brightly colored tights and fighting evil. Said in fewer words, they remain anonymous because they’re cowards.

            People who are sincerely trying to solve a perceived moral problem have no problem letting everyone know who they are and facing their detractors, stating their case and taking whatever slings and arrows come their way. Otherwise, the issue really isn’t that important to them, is it? If they’re not willing to put their own name behind the issue, thoughtful people should question just how important the issue really is to them, and if it’s really not important to them, they why are they pounding the pulpit? Apparently, it’s not important enough for them to put their own name behind it, and this should give any thinking person pause and bring into question their true motives. To butcher Shakespeare, me thinks he doth protest too much — to remain anonymous.

            This owner of this site uses the brave language of Martin Luther King, but has the backbone of the cowardly lion (before he met the wizard). Instead of engaging in an honest debate, he simply throws verbal rocks from deep inside his hole in the ground. Instead of facing bullets, he stays safely anonymous behind his keyboard far from the front line. Instead of addressing thoughtful counter points, he simply ignores them and continues to demagogue the issue.

            All of that tells me that there are hidden motives at work here. What they are, I don’t know for sure but I have my suspicions. They could be painful childhood memories of being left out or they could be jealousy of successful people brought on by lack of personal success , or it could be that this person is borderline psycho and lives in an imaginary world where he wears the only white hat. Whatever they are, it is apparent that his tears are more cocodile tears than true inner conviction.

            Are there issues with over-signing? Of course! But every kid who transfers isn’t being forced out and enough highly valued starters leave early to make a valid point that some over-signing is necessary. Whatever your take on the issue, until the owner of this site is willing to stand and be counted by name, everything he says should taken with a very big grain of salt because he appears for all the world to have ulterior motives that are more about him personally than the kids he professes to care about.

  13. I’m amazed that Josh has enough time in his day to focus on Alabama’s issues, given that he spent most of last night trying to digest the Terrelle Pryor thing. But I would guess that this whole Tressel/Pryor thing has him so angry that he only knows one way to deal with it–direct even more vitriol at Alabama’s program.

    the funny thing about it at this point is that the SEC presidents have voted already. We are at “Game Over” for the SEC and Bama, at least for the next year. Thus, Josh is standing on the mountaintop screaming (and looking like a fool), while no one who has the power to do anything about it gives a shit.

    I thought this post from an OSU website last night was very telling. Again, having gone back to the beginning of this website, and knowing “who” this guy is (at least what his other “alias” is), it was interesting to me to see what his and his buddies’ reaction would be to the Pryor announcement:

    “We’re going down hard, it’s time for 7&7 to refocus his efforts on identifying cheating/corruption at other schools ”

    7&7 is his moniker on that other website. So now is it clear what the M.O. of this guy is? It AIN’T the kids, guys. Wake the hell up.

  14. Quote:
    Joshua – June 7th, 2011 – 23:20
    “Quit your bitching, we had a March to 85 for several schools last year, will probably put more together this year…don’t act like Alabama is the only school that gets mentioned here. ”

    You are correct, there are not the only ones mentioned. But take a look at your tag cloud. Alabama and Nick Saban are #3 &#4 behind only Oversigning and Recruiting Numbers.

    Alabama is a target for you at a disproportionate degree. You can claim otherwise, but the numbers speak for themselves.

    • At some level, it is better that he keeps up this single-minded approach, because all it does is diminish his personal credibility, which has been tremendously shaky from the first time he put fingers to the keyboard.

  15. PLEASE EXPLAIN SOMETHING TO ME:

    How is a kid transferring any different than a kid not EVER signing with a big school to start with? Either way he’s going to a smaller school.

    At least he got the opportunity to compete. If he had been up to competition he wouldn’t have transferred.

    It’s like telling a person that they should never have been given an opportunity to work in corporate America, they should have been forced to start out at McDonald’s because that way “theiw widdle feewings wouldn’t get hurt.”

  16. Josh – Per the last line of your post “This is gaming the system and it is forcing kids to downgrade their athletic and academic careers simply because a coach needs to get down to 85.”

    Since NCAA rules prevent the cancellation or reduction of a scholarship based on athletic performance how is a coach forcing these students out?

    I would like to better understand what exactly these coaches are doing and if you have any evidence of any rules being broken?

    S

    • Before I say this, I’ll have everyone know I have no hatred toward the SEC and admit they are the best conference in CFB, but…

      Just because he has no evidence of their intent, doesn’t mean rules aren’t broken on purpose. Numbers suggest (or reflect) that the SEC oversigns more than any other conference, by a fairly solid margin. Why does the SEC or any habitual oversigner always have the coincidental transfers and medical hardships that other conferences or teams don’t experience? Defenders continue to use the logic that highly recruited 4th stringers or any 4th stringers want to transfer and play. Fair enough, but all schools have 4th stringers and all schools don’t have 8 people transfer out every year. It just so happens, coincidentally, that the same schools with several transfers and medical hardships are the schools that are well over 85.

      Perhaps its just dumbluck that the habitual oversigners just luck out and receive the right amount of transfers and medical hardships to land on 84 or 85 every year.

      • I take it you haven’t seen the comparison I did of attrition rates for all SEC and B10 schools? Judging from your post I think you would be suprised indeed to learn that the averagr attrition from SEC schools is within 1% of the average for the B10 schools, where are all these extra transfers you allude to?

        While all schools may have 4th stringers, not many are former 4 star recruits.

        • You did one for attrition percentages (which is misleading), and had a couple random people who “didn’t count” because they were going to play baseball

          • Yes, I did percentages, because that is how you compare quantities of a certain element when the total values at each location differ. I know no other reasonable way to do it. If a scientist wants to know how much pollution is in a body of water compared to other bodies of water, they take a sample from each and figure the percentages (often discussed in parts per million, which is still a percentage). Is that misleading as well?

            The people wern’t random. Nobody counted that wasn’t part of the team. I don’t know how many times we have to go over that. How is a guy kicked off a team or otherwise counted in attrition if he never participated with that team? Please explain how this can be if you want to continue to parse my example. I have no issue with you pointing this out to people mind you, but I’ve asked you do explain this a few times to no avail as yet.

            • Well, today is your lucky day! I’m actually an engineer, so i know a lot about the scientific method.

              I did not strenuously object to the people not qualifying, but the way attrition was calculated (over 4 years) and the inclusion of the baseball players as “justified attrition”.

              You have not described exactly why the SEC signs so many, compared with the B1G. Are there 4-5 more students who signed and didn’t come in? 4-5 Juco players? How do you explain the discrepancy between signing numbers? You can’t ignore all the facts out there, you need to explain sufficiently why there is that difference.

              • Small world isn’t it? What discipline are you?

                The answers to you questions are there. They were not the focus of my analysis, attrition was. I think it was Vesper or maybe Bathel who actually did the analysis after Josh pointed out that Bama signed a class more than Mich State. He found that when you account for players that never played and double counters that the difference was only a couple. I think that answers much of your questions above. Besides, when you maximize roster space you by definition will sign mlore than anyone who doesn’t.

                • I’m an electrical engineer, most of my work involves doing hardware verification for satelite/spacecraft hardware. Fun stuff.

                  As for double counters… not sure what you mean by this. I assume you mean people who apply, don’t get in, but then get in after juco. But that’s messing with the time aspect of it.

                  But still, a “couple” kids is still more than enough to make a difference. I’d be most interested in a year by year comparison to determine who is still on one year to the next. Perhaps i’ll compile that data over the weekend.

                  • I’m civil myself – been doing a lot of stuff for the Corps of Engineers on Military bases the last few years. We have looked at several projects at the Redstone Arsenal up in Huntsville. They do a lot of your kind of stuff there, very fascinating. Nothing like looking at a site and hearing rockets being test-fired in the distance…

                    The “couple” of kids were over the five years that Josh’s count was done. That’s not really that much. You are correct about double counters, and JuCo guys in general count the same when you only consider LOIs, but only contribute 2 or 3 years instead of 4 or 5. Bama doesn’t use JuCos as much as some, but they usually bring in 1 or 2 a year. When compared to a team that rarely brings in a JuCo at all, that adds a lot. I wish I had a link to his explaination of it all, it was (at least should have been, it went ingored by many) quite an eye-opener.

                    Hope you have the time to look into that, I’ll be interested in your findings.

              • Luke,
                I made a model that explains discrepancies between teams that very conservatively forecast attrition and those teams that forecast attrition accurately.

                • There are also other completely legitimate reasons for differences in numbers. The redshirt tactics that a coach employs causes a difference. Some coaches focus less on high school academics than other coaches; this causes number differences as some of the students will not qualify. There are also big differences between some schools in the number of players who leave early for the draft.

                  Attrition forecasting, redshirts, academics, and NFL draft are statistically different from school-to-school, AND each of these factors affect the number of signees a coach will accept.

                • Why not post said model?

                  • Because right now it’s 400+ lines of C++… not counting the random number generation model which is derived from boost’s Mersenne Twister generator (mt19937). I performed large sets of Monte Carlo runs (1,000 signing class per team). 1,000 is adequately large to cancel out the transient effects as each team starts the 1,000 years with the same roster. 1,000 is also adequately large to show statistically valid deviations.

                    For each “team,” I set up parameters for redshirting percentage mean/stdev, 2- and 3-year juco percentage mean/stdev and attrition mean/stdev. Outputs are graduates, attrition, grayshirts, total signed, and scholarships unused/used on walk-ons. Early departures for NFL is wrapped into attrition.

                    I have not validated any of the inputs to the model, but I used common sense when trying to come up with typical numbers for JUCOs, RSs, attritions… some of my numbers seem to synch fairly well with the kind of numbers that I’m seeing thrown around on this site.

                    I encourage everyone to make their own models; I’d be surprised if a good model did not replicate trends that I saw.

                    I’m working on a more robust model that takes into account some more signing logic and coaching considerations relative to years of eligibility.

                    The interesting results by the way: teams that award scholarships to walk-on upperclassmen have a higher number of graduates and a lower attrition number (according to my model; also appealing to common sense). If you, on average, give 4 scholarships a year to walk-on upperclassmen, one would expect to experience 0% attrition and 100% graduation on those 4 schollies–which biases the statistics upward for the school.

                    Aggressively estimating attrition and non-qualifiers still sometimes leaves teams passing schollies to walk-ons. Even VERY conservatively estimating attrition leaves teams using grayshirts some of the time.

                    • Umm….? 400 lines? and 1000 people? And whats everyone’s deal with class attrition percentages? You can have the same class percentage and cut 3 more people. Anyone can make a model that fits with their numbers. whats the use of creating a model without proof that your model is correct?

                    • Ok Luke, I have an honest question for you:

                      Teams A and B sign 20 kids every year.
                      After several years, it is found that each team loses 4 recruits every year to attrition.
                      Team A is happy with things and keeps everything like it has always been.
                      Team B decides to optimize their roster and increase the opportunities they provide by oversigning.
                      Team B begins signing 25 every year (with the understanding that 5 will grayshirt should the expected attrition not occur).
                      While Team A continues to lose 4 players every year, Team B begins losing 5.

                      1. Who’s getting screwed over here?
                      2. Is Team B cutting that 5th guy or are they simply losing one out of every 5?

                      I think all rational people would agree that the 5th guy is natural attrition (each team loses 20%), and thus you have the importance of attrition percentages.

                    • Luke, you misunderstand my post… Please look up “Monte Carlo” analysis. It’s not a 1,000-person signing class; it’s 1,000 signing classes per team (i.e. 1,000 consecutive years). I simply proved that the factors that I stated as inputs statistically change the outputs.

                      I’m not cooking numbers; I urge you to create a high-fidelity model that doesn’t agree with my summary.

                    • I have no problem with 400 lines of code, care to share it.

                    • I cut this one down to ~350 lines. I have constructed a more robust model in python, but I will not be able to share it.

                      Please understand that I did not write the model for other people… it’s quick and dirty; there are some intricacies in understanding the outputs, but you guys are smart enough to figure them out:

                      //—— Filename: main.cpp ————
                      #include “stdafx.h”
                      #include “sclass.h”

                      int main(int argc, char* argv[])
                      {
                      Team team;
                      //team.dAttritionConservationSigmas = x;
                      //team.dRedshirtStrategy = y;
                      //…
                      team.initialize();
                      bool disp = false;
                      for (int iYear = 0; iYear < 1000; iYear++)
                      {
                      team[i].cycle();
                      }

                      team[i].displayCumulatives();

                      return 0;
                      }

                      //—— Filename: sclass.h ————

                      #ifndef __S_CLASS_H__
                      #define __S_CLASS_H__

                      #include
                      #include

                      class Player
                      {
                      public:
                      Player() :
                      _bRedshirted(false),
                      _bFirst(true),
                      _iYear(1){}
                      bool _bRedshirted;
                      bool _bFirst;
                      unsigned int _iYear; //0=rs, 1=fr, 2=so, 3=jr, 4=sr
                      }; //end class Player

                      class Team
                      {
                      public:
                      Team()
                      :
                      dRedshirtStrategy(0.80),
                      dAttritionMean(0.05),
                      dAttritionStandardDeviation(0.015),
                      iCumulativeGray(0),
                      iCumulativeSign(0),
                      iCumulativeAttr(0),
                      iCumulativeGrad(0),
                      iCumulativeWast(0),
                      iLargestSingleYearLoss(0),
                      iLargestSingleYearAttrition(0),
                      dAttritionConservationSigmas(0.0),
                      dJuco2StrategyMean(2.0),
                      dJuco2StrategyStandardDeviation(2.0),
                      dJuco3StrategyMean(3.0),
                      dJuco3StrategyStandardDeviation(2.0),
                      dQualifyPercentage(0.95),
                      iYear(0),
                      bInitialized(false),
                      random()
                      {
                      }
                      void displayCumulatives()
                      {
                      std::cout << "\nTotal graduated: " << iCumulativeGrad;
                      std::cout << "\nTotal attrited: " << iCumulativeAttr;
                      std::cout << "\nTotal grayshirted: " << iCumulativeGray;
                      std::cout << "\nTotal signed: " << iCumulativeSign;
                      std::cout << "\nTotal wasted: " << iCumulativeWast;
                      std::cout << "\nLargest attition: " << iLargestSingleYearAttrition;
                      std::cout << "\nLargest grad + attr " << iLargestSingleYearLoss;
                      std::cout < iLargestSingleYearLoss)
                      iLargestSingleYearLoss = loss;

                      grayshirt(display);
                      if (display)
                      {
                      std::cout << "Total players: " << Players.size();
                      std::cout << "\n\n";
                      }
                      }
                      void initialize()
                      {
                      if (bInitialized)
                      {
                      reset();
                      }
                      double totalClasses = dRedshirtStrategy + 4.0;
                      int redshirts = (int)(dRedshirtStrategy/totalClasses*85.0+random.drawUniform(0.0, 1.0));
                      int totalUsed = 0;
                      for (int i = 0; i < redshirts; i++)
                      {
                      Player p;
                      p._bRedshirted = true;
                      p._iYear = 0;
                      Players.push_back(p);
                      totalUsed++;
                      }
                      totalClasses -= dRedshirtStrategy;
                      int freshmen = (int)(1.0/totalClasses*(85.0-totalUsed)+random.drawUniform(0.0, 1.0));
                      for (int i = 0; i < freshmen; i++)
                      {
                      Player p;
                      p._bRedshirted = false;
                      p._iYear = 1;
                      Players.push_back(p);
                      totalUsed++;
                      }
                      totalClasses -= 1.0;
                      int sophomores = (int)(1.0/totalClasses*(85.0-totalUsed)+random.drawUniform(0.0, 1.0));
                      for (int i = 0; i < sophomores; i++)
                      {
                      Player p;
                      p._bRedshirted = false;
                      p._iYear = 2;
                      Players.push_back(p);
                      totalUsed++;
                      }
                      totalClasses -= 1.0;
                      int juniors = (int)(1.0/totalClasses*(85.0-totalUsed)+random.drawUniform(0.0, 1.0));
                      for (int i = 0; i < juniors; i++)
                      {
                      Player p;
                      p._bRedshirted = false;
                      p._iYear = 3;
                      Players.push_back(p);
                      totalUsed++;
                      }
                      int seniors = (int)(85.0001-totalUsed);
                      for (int i = 0; i < seniors; i++)
                      {
                      Player p;
                      p._bRedshirted = false;
                      p._iYear = 4;
                      Players.push_back(p);
                      totalUsed++;
                      }

                      bInitialized = true;
                      }
                      void sign(bool display)
                      {
                      int start = iCumulativeSign;

                      double expectedAttrition = dAttritionMean * Players.size();
                      double plannedAttrition = Players.size() * (dAttritionMean – dAttritionConservationSigmas * dAttritionStandardDeviation);
                      if (plannedAttrition < 0.0)
                      plannedAttrition = 0.0;

                      int iPlanned = (int)(plannedAttrition + 0.4999);

                      double dSigningClass = 85.0 – Players.size() + plannedAttrition;

                      double dnonJucoSigningClass = dSigningClass – dJuco2StrategyMean – dJuco3StrategyMean;
                      double dOversignForNonQuals = dnonJucoSigningClass / dQualifyPercentage;

                      int signingClass = (int)(dJuco2StrategyMean + dJuco3StrategyMean + dOversignForNonQuals + 0.4999);

                      if (signingClass < 0)
                      signingClass = 0;

                      //juco w/ 2-years remaining
                      int juco2 = (int)(0.5+random.drawNormal( dJuco2StrategyMean, dJuco2StrategyStandardDeviation ) );
                      for (int i = 0; i < juco2; i++)
                      {
                      iCumulativeSign++;
                      Player p;
                      p._iYear = 3;
                      Players.push_front(p);
                      }
                      signingClass -= juco2;

                      //juco w/ 3-years remaining
                      int juco3 = (int)(0.5+random.drawNormal( dJuco3StrategyMean, dJuco3StrategyStandardDeviation ) );
                      for (int i = 0; i < juco2; i++)
                      {
                      iCumulativeSign++;
                      Player p;
                      p._iYear = 2;
                      Players.push_front(p);
                      }
                      signingClass -= juco3;

                      int nonQuals = 0;
                      for (int i = 0; i dQualifyPercentage)
                      {
                      nonQuals++;
                      //non qualifier! do not add to team!
                      }
                      else
                      {
                      Player p;
                      double rsDraw = random.drawUniform(0.0, 1.0);
                      if (rsDraw < dRedshirtStrategy)
                      {
                      p._iYear = 0;
                      p._bRedshirted = true;
                      }
                      else
                      {
                      p._iYear = 1;
                      }
                      Players.push_front(p);
                      }
                      }

                      if (display)
                      {
                      int totalSignedThisYear = iCumulativeSign – start;
                      std::cout << "Total Signed : " << totalSignedThisYear << std::endl;
                      std::cout << " 2-year Jucos: " << juco2 << std::endl;
                      std::cout << " 3-year Jucos: " << juco3 << std::endl;
                      std::cout << " HS Seniors : " << signingClass << std::endl;
                      std::cout << " Non-quals : " << nonQuals << std::endl;
                      }
                      }
                      unsigned int graduate(bool display)
                      {
                      unsigned int iGraduated = 0;
                      std::list::iterator i;
                      for (i = Players.begin(); i != Players.end(); i++)
                      {
                      (*i)._bFirst = false;
                      if ( (*i)._iYear == 4 )
                      {
                      i = Players.erase( i );
                      i–;
                      iGraduated++;
                      iCumulativeGrad++;
                      }
                      else
                      {
                      (*i)._iYear++;
                      }
                      }
                      if (display)
                      std::cout << "Graduated: " << iGraduated < 85 )
                      {
                      iGrayshirts = Players.size() – 85;
                      iCumulativeGray += iGrayshirts;
                      }
                      if (display)
                      std::cout << "Grayshirts: " << iGrayshirts < 0.0)
                      {
                      std::list::iterator i = Players.begin();
                      while (i != Players.end())
                      {
                      bool begin = false;
                      if (!(*i)._bFirst && random.drawUniform(0.0, 1.0) < thisYear)
                      {
                      i = Players.erase( i );
                      if (i != Players.begin())
                      {
                      begin = true;
                      i–;
                      }
                      iAttrition++;
                      iCumulativeAttr++;
                      }
                      if (!begin)
                      i++;
                      }
                      }
                      int wastedScholarships = 85 – Players.size();
                      if (wastedScholarships < 0)
                      wastedScholarships = 0;

                      iCumulativeWast += wastedScholarships;
                      if (display)
                      {
                      std::cout << "Attrition: " << iAttrition << std::endl;
                      std::cout << "Wasted: " << wastedScholarships < iLargestSingleYearAttrition)
                      iLargestSingleYearAttrition = iAttrition;

                      return iAttrition;
                      }
                      void reset()
                      {
                      if (!bInitialized)
                      return;
                      iCumulativeGray = 0;
                      iCumulativeSign = 0;
                      iCumulativeGrad = 0;
                      iCumulativeAttr = 0;

                      while (!Players.empty())
                      {
                      Players.pop_front();
                      }
                      iYear = 0;
                      }
                      double dJuco2StrategyMean;
                      double dJuco2StrategyStandardDeviation;
                      double dJuco3StrategyMean;
                      double dJuco3StrategyStandardDeviation;
                      double dQualifyPercentage;
                      double dRedshirtStrategy;
                      double dAttritionMean;
                      double dAttritionStandardDeviation;
                      double dAttritionConservationSigmas;
                      bool bInitialized;
                      unsigned int iLargestSingleYearLoss;
                      unsigned int iLargestSingleYearAttrition;
                      unsigned int iCumulativeGray;
                      unsigned int iCumulativeSign;
                      unsigned int iCumulativeGrad;
                      unsigned int iCumulativeAttr;
                      unsigned int iCumulativeWast;
                      unsigned int iYear;
                      util::Random random;
                      std::list Players;
                      }; //end sClass

                      #endif

                    • Sorry… there are some typos in there; I tried to make some variable-name edits outside of the IDE, but they’ll be easy to spot if anyone tries to compile.

                      Also, the includes got messed up because of html, or rather, my lack of html… I just pasted the code. Again, those should be pretty easy to figure out.

      • well, Saban is a tough sonofagun, maybe that 4th string player doesnt feel like putting up with everything that is involved at Bama, just to sit the sidelines. Maybe he wants to go somewhere else not as tough and be able to play.

      • I the 80′s we had guys transfer out as well. The scholarship limit was higher back then and every year there was always 1-2 scholarships awarded to walk-ons, so we were not over-signing. Those transfers were almost always highly rated prospects that had not managed to achieve the level of success they wanted for whatever reason.

        It was a humbling experience for them and they sought greener pastures, the chance to start somewhere else now, rather than wait to see if they could work their way of the charts.

        The other night my son announced that “that guy is cheating by driving those cars,” as we watched ESPN talk about the 5 or 6 different cars Terrelle Pryor was driving over the last two years. I told him he did not know that to be the truth, it was just speculation. I told him that first, the media reports may be incorrect, they often are. And even if they were correct it is possible that those cars were obtained legitimately, no matter how it looked. You don’t accuse people of cheating without proof. Even when it looks dire.

        Quote: “Just because he has no evidence of their intent, doesn’t mean rules aren’t broken on purpose.” That is true, but if a 9 year old gets it, why should I not expect an adult to get it. And by the way what rule are you talking about being broken? Fans are far to often way to eager to say someone “cheats” with little or no evidence and often what they call cheating is not even a rules violation. Often they repeat something so often they believe it themselves and say so loud for so long others do not question them.

        I think Josh does that, and he does so with a clear bias toward certain schools and gives deference to others. So I am simply asking what, beyond his opinion, does he have that says anyone is cheating or doing something that is inappropriate.

        • I agree with your cheating analogy on people piling on. I could be wrong but I don’t think I’ve ever claimed that alleged oversigners were “cheating.” There’s plenty of things that happen in the world that we’re not sure of. Did Bush know Iraq didn’t possess WMD’s? Did OJ kill Nicole? Obviously we don’t know these things for certain, but people have their suspicions. I’ll never call any oversigning coaches cheaters, but I will be skeptical and I’ll try and provide any backup to my opinion that I can.

          Much of my skepticism comes from the coaches replies when asked about the topic. Paraphrasing: “Our education system isn’t the best.” “It’s hard to manage a team of 85 guys, sometimes things get confusing.” “It’s against NCAA guidelines to list the names of players on scholarships.”

          These types of (paraphrased) answers don’t instill trust in the common fan of the sport. Tough sh*t if your school systems aren’t the best. I wish we had better athletes up north but we don’t. There’s atleast 1 coach or adult figure on the staff for every 3 or 4 players on a team, so listening to coaches mumble about confusion is not truthful. Not coming out with the list of greyshirts right after signing day creates a cloud of confusion, and if certain coaches are all for greyshirting, why not just come out and say who you want to greyshirt right away?

          • That is a very reasonable stance and I certainly don’t. Have a problem with anyone who feels that way – though I disagree. The info you want (scholarship names, grayshirt names, ect) is none of your business. Every team provides this information to the NCAA every year* so unless we think they are letting someone get away with breaking the rules, what business is it of ours to have this personal information about 18-20 yr olds?

            *teams don’t provide grayshirts at NSD as you would like, and on this I somewhat agree. While I don’t think it should be public as to who, I would really like to see grayshirts be a seperate LOI or something to that effect, so that it is in writing at NSD.

        • Gary,
          How do you account for the discrepancy in signing numbers? That seems like an honest question, right? Whats so bad about asking that? Can you give a plausible reason for the discrepancy?

          • I’ll throw in my explanation. Updating Josh’s recruiting numbers for the 2011 class, Iowa signs an average of 22.1 per year, Alabama signs an average of 25.8 for a difference of 3.7 per year.

            -As you and others have shown, a 90%/70% difference in redshirting accounts for approximately 1 player per class. Based on a quick review, the 90%/70% model seems to apply to Iowa and Alabama.

            -According to this article (http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2011/01/which_football_teams_sign_the.html), Iowa signed 1 Juco from ’07-’10 equaling 0.25 per year. Alabama signed 5 for an average of 1.25 per year resulting in a difference of 1 per year. Since a JUCO transfer typically comes in with half the eligibility of a high school signee, we’ll count that 1 per year as 0.5.

            -According to the BHGP article, Iowa had 4 signees fail to qualify from ’06-’10 for an average of 0.8 per year. Alabama had at least 11 (I can provide the list if you wish) averaging 2.2 per year. Difference of 1.4 per year.

            -According to BHGP, Iowa also had 3 players leave early for the draft (including the 2011 draft) which is 0.6 per year. Alabama had 7 over the same period for 1.4 per year. Difference 0.8 per year.

            1 (redshirt) + 0.5 (Juco) + 1.4 (non-qualifiers) + 0.8 (draft) = 3.7

            While Alabama does sign more recruits on average than Iowa, the difference can be accounted for by the above factors. If Alabama is running off players, then Iowa is running off an equal number of players.

            • Amazing how Josh continues with his subterfuge while failing to acknowledge this. Maybe he thinks no one can read?

            • So, I guess the basic signing model/roster construction looks something like this, on average? Again — not my strong suit. Just trying to understand.

              Iowa
              Signs 22
              Enrolls 22

              Y1 22
              Y2 19
              Y3 16 (early entry)
              Y4 13 (graduation)
              Y5 12 (5th year)
              Total of 82. 3 walk-ons get a scholarship year.

              Alabama
              Signs 27
              Enrolls 25

              Y1 25
              Y2 21
              Y3 17 (early entry)
              Y4 14 (graduation)
              Y5 8 (5th year)
              Total of 85. No walk-ons get a scholarship year.

              Or something close to that?

            • Where are you getting these numbers? Sports illustrated and ESPN report for Alabama’s numbers yields class sizes of around 28, if you use the 2011-2008.

              ESPN: 2008- 32, 2009-30, 2010-28, 2011 – 24
              SI: 2008 – 32, 2009 – 27, 2010 -26, (can’t get this last one, lets assume 24).

              That yields a difference of 1.

              You also can’t use non qualifiers from multiple different sets – 06-10? 07-10? Then use 2008-2011 for everything else? Please stick with one set. That throws your numbers off. It also biases the numbers.

              Stick with a consistent dataset. Otherwise, you’re just picking the numbers from the years which agree with you most.

              • I used ’06-’10 for non-qualfiers and draft because that was the timeframe for the data provided by the BHGP article. I used ’07-’10 for Jucos because that was what was used in the al.com article. I used ’02-’11 for recruiting class size because that is the largest dataset available. Just for you, I’ll make everything 06-11 and run the numbers again:

                Signing class: Alabama 26.5, Iowa 22.2. Difference 4.3

                Redshirt: Difference 1 per year

                JUCO: Alabama 1.67 per, Iowa 0.5 per. Difference 1.17 per divided by two for eligibility = 0.6

                Non-qualifiers: Same as above (no non-qualifiers in ’11 yet). Difference 1.4 per

                Draft: Same as above (includes ’11 draftees). Difference 0.8 per

                1 (redshirt) + 0.6 (JUCO) + 1.4 (non-qualifiers) + 0.8 (draft) = 3.8

                So, when you take into account just the above factors, you’re left with 0.5 of a person difference between Alabama and Iowa per year. Not exactly the “extra full recruiting class every 4 years” that everyone talks about, is it?

          • Luke, yes, that is an honest question.

            Simply put teams that over-sign are managing their rosters to account for attrition. I personally do not think that is necessarily a bad thing either.

            It would require an in depth analysis of each university to give precise reasons for each but I will give some generalities.

            Reasons for attrition and “over-signing”
            1. More academically at risk SA’s recruited – Some need to go Jr. College route, more academic casualties once on campus (though that trend has changed ini recent years)
            2. More athletes with ratings 80+ Alabama 55+4 Juco AA (54% of signees), OSU 37 (42% of signees) over last 4 years – this has two effects
            a) More higher rated athletes not starting so they look for transfers
            b) More injuries. Generally speaking ratings for athletes is greatly influenced by size, speed and strength (more size speed and strength = more injuries) And that is just one team, the yearly competitors for both schools are more similar.

            Adding to the injuries is the heat. The average temp in Tuscaloosa is 6-13 degrees higher on average. When I played we had 21 straight days of temperatures of 100+. The coaches finally had to back off due to increased injuries (not just heat related)

            I am sure there are more reasons but that is a quick take.

            But I think the real issue people have with over-signing is one of two things.
            1. Schools that are not allowed to over sign are not happy that others can.
            2. Universities with higher academic admission requirements cannot sign the borderline SA’s while schools like Alabama can and with over-signing they can afford to take the risk knowing some will not qualify.

            But it is more politically correct to make over-signing the scourge of college football and say it is about this kids getting “chewed up and spit out” by evil coaches.

            It would be a PR nightmare for the Big Ten and its institutions to point to Academic differences as the culprit for not being competitive.

            The truth of the matter is that every issue raised on this site about protecting the SA could be resolved by simple rule changes or addressed with current rules.
            1) Improved no-renewal due process – so coaches cannot run SAs off
            2) Independent medical evaluations for medical non-renewals
            3) Gray-shirt addendum to Scholarships – if a team only has 16 available slots on signing day and signs 25 SA’s to LOI’s then 9 off them must include an addendum at the time of signing.
            4) Change transfer policy for SA’s that are not renewed so they do not have to site out a year – leave it in place for those that choose to transfer.

            • I want to add a couple of things.

              I think some of the things that have gone on down at LSU (late non-renewal of one athlete and late notification Gray shirt for two more) are reprehensible. But those issues can be addressed without doing away with over-signing.

              If you notice that the two schools in the SEC that are often sited as being against over-signing are two of the top three with the most difficult admissions requirements. Vandy/FLA/GA

              Notice that most of the teams at or near the top of Josh’s list or worst over-signers have easier academic requirements.

              Rather than having real concern for the SA and addressing ways to fix the problems they see, they are using over-signing to help restrict recruiting on teams with more relaxed admission standards. I think that pretty much means they are doing the very thing they accuse others of doing, which is exploiting the SA.

              Also, I have looked high and low for the Big Ten rules “that we all know by now” prohibits over-signing. All I can find is people referring to it, but I cannot find the actual text of the rule or much of any reference as to why it was made 55 years ago. It is not published on the Big Ten site, the NCAA and SEC both publish their rules. Yet when we hear about transparency it is pointed at Nick Saban. So what is the Big Ten hiding. Oh, and by the way, I wrote to the Big Ten requesting a copy of their rules a week ago. No reply yet.

              Also, we hear about how this is to protect the SA, but I am beginning to think the reason the rule was made by the Big Ten was not to protect the athlete at all. From my research I am beginning to think that it was more to prevent Big Ten teams from cheating since in 1956 the Big Ten did not award athletic scholarships, but need/academic based GIA. and even that was controversial. It seems a good many teams in the Big Ten where cheating back then with bogus scholarships, money and jobs being handed out to SA’s etc. In fact Ohio State was put on probation that year.

              The more we learn the less it looks like the anti-oversigning crowd is about fairness to athletes as it is wanting to real in schools that they are having problems competing against on the field of sports. Which interestingly has increased the number of students wanting to attend these universities from beyond the states borders.

            • I agree with your point #1. Point #2. Puh-leeze.

              This is something B1G fans have said for years, but you can’t tell me that Duron Carter (now playing at Bama), Reggie Germany, and even Terrelle Pryor were any more academically ready to be at Ohio State than any of the kids that Bama recruits. The notion that academic standards have ANY impact on who Ohio State recruits is total BS. They get whoever the hell they want to get, period.

              • SO I guess what we hear about Ohio States Academic standards is a lie or is it that they bend their own rules to allow under qualified athletes in?

                • I would say the former. Florida publishes their admission standards for football players vs. the general student population, and they are much lower. Don’t know if OSU does that. But I am willing to bet that any time a player the caliber of Pryor comes along, there is never any sort of an issue with getting him accepted.

                  • You obviously missed the discussion several days ago where the B10 and anti-oversigning crowd shot down the relevancy of the APR. Of course that was when it was being used to point out that the SEC did not suffer abnormally low numbers with respect to others:

                    A post by In the Middle, go from there:
                    http://oversigning.com/testing/index.php/2011/06/03/myth-removing-oversigning-removes-educational-opportunities/#comment-9760

                  • OSU has done a great job with their APR, a measure they ranked BEHIND Bama on as recently as last year. That’s great, but that wasn’t Little Joe’s point. His point was that the concept of bragging about how high admission standards for athletes at OSU is a joke when all you have to do is look at kids like Carter, Germany, and others who clearly were sub-standard students after they arrived in Columbus, so what happened to them? The rumor about Carter was that he was never going to class and playing Xbox all day, but who cares? The fact is that with all the bluster about how important academics are, you STILL have the 0.0 Reggie “Bluto Blutarsky” Germany stuff happening, and I would bet dollars to doughnuts that we will find out that Pryor’s academic status was phonied up to make him look better.

                    The painful fact (for OSU fans) is that Jim Tressel didn’t give a crap about academics any more than he gave a crap about “protecting his kids”. He wanted to WIN, and he got caught with his whole arm in the cookie jar.

                    • Really? Jim Tressel didn’t give a crap about academics? Please. The APR score proves that academics were big on his priority list. The APR scores from the tressel area versus the cooper are much different. He was also the only head coach who actively led a class. So yeah, academics were an important thing for him. The APR scores prove that.

                    • Just a question about the APR, and someone alluded to this elsewhere: does a 5th year walk-on who is awarded a scholarship for his final year counted the same as Terrell Pryor? My understanding is that they do, and given the high number of walk-ons awarded schollies for their final year, that seems like an APR booster right there, no? Given that SEC schools use these same slots to bring in freshmen instead of inflating the APR with seniors about to graduate, it is pretty remarkable that teams like Bama do as well as they do.

                      BTW, why not just count the total kids that graduate? I mean if percentages and rates don’t mean anything…

                    • Luke, you need to check you facts, Ohio State had the 4th LOWESt GSR in the Big Ten last year. And unlike golf, low is BAD. And in terms of APR scores, Ohio State got their most recent one way up (still not that far ahead of Bama’s), but historically (in the TRESSEL ERA) it has not been that great.

                      So while Tressel talked a lot about academics, it was like the rest of his phony baloney Ward Cleaver image. It was bull.

              • On #2, maybe the boys down here are just not as tough. ;)

            • Your rationales:
              1. I agree, they sign more juco, and others dont qualify. Those numbers alone won’t explain the discrepancy.

              2 What? Even if that was true, for say, alabama, do you think Ole Miss, Miss State, Auburn, etc all have higher ratings? Shouldn’t we see less from those teams?

              As for heat indexes, i’d be surprised if Alabama doesn’t have an indoor practice field. Shocked, really, considering most major college sports teams have them.

              As for your rule changes:
              1. I agree with. I like it, i know the B1G has one in place.
              2. Agree with this one, no brainer
              3. This i am okay with, not crazy about. Coaches could still run people off, then justify it later. But its better than onthing.
              4. I disagree with this, for poaching players and other reasons.

              • By my count, Iowa enrolled (versus signed) 157 from 2002-2008, an average of 22.4. Scanning 4 years of rosters for each class, 66 of those kids disappeared at some point prior to Y4. 66/157 equals 42%, right?

                Again — do you consider that an acceptable rate of attrition given the B1G rules?

                • I’ve told you multiple times, attrition percentage is not the best stat. its a non-factor.

                  You can have the same attrition percentage yet cut 3 more players if you cut them earlier rather than later.

                  • I agree that that is the case, but why does it matter? If you cut a kid early, he has more time to offer the program he transfers to. If you cut them later, you gave them more opportunity at that school. If you’re cutting kids, I don’t see where earlier or later makes much a difference. You may convince me otherwise, however, id like you to explain further.

                  • 67 out of 157 isn’t meaningless. Just because something isn’t the “best stat” doesn’t make it worthless.

                    Yes, if all 67 of those kids got through Year 3, that’s different than if all 67 never made it to Year 2. But 67 out of 157 failing to cross a finish line means a lot.

                    I’m not reaching for moral equivalency here. I’m looking at a ruie which has been around for 8 years and which has demonstrable results to test its efficacy.

                    “They sign less guys, so that means….” Yes, they do sign less. Which doesn’t seem to result in statistically significant differences in graduation rates, APR, or even kids lost prior to the completion of a full 4 year college experience.

                    Stop making assumptions about a rule you want to see imposed on every S-A and program in America because you think its better than the SEC’s. Consider that stipulated with respect to the number of kids signed on my part. But we can and should look deeper and do better.

              • Well the difference between Alabama and OSU is 7 on average/year.
                3-4 non-qualifiers a year
                2-4 transfer
                1-3 medical
                2- 4 Juco’s with just 2 years to play
                1-3 early exit to NFL (I know OSU has this too)

                It doesn’t take much to make up the difference.

                #2 – yeah the 80+ argument was kind of weak from an injury standpoint and I knew that when I wrote it, but there could be marginal variances because if it. Yes, BAMA has an indoor field, it is used primarily to escape rain or high winds. More rarely it is used to escape heat.

                The 80+ SAs leaving for more playing time is very legitimate.

                You mention Auburn, MSU and Ole Miss – those are the 3 worst in terms of retention in the SEC. A huge number of SA’s are lost to non-qualifiers.

                Here is a good article on that.
                http://www2.oanow.com/sports/2009/aug/09/au_football_attrition_leaves_tigers_short_on_schol-ar-502293/

                As you can see Auburn actually started the 2009 season with just 75 on scholarship.

                I am not sure why you disagree with #4. The free transfer does not apply if the SA chooses to leave the team. If the SA does something to intentionally get himself removed just to be able to transfer, he is taking a huge risk as other schools will only see the behavior that got him removed. It is very unlikely they would believe him later when he said he did it to transfer. The only way they would is if the school colluded with him, which poses a MUCH larger problem for the SA and the school that colluded.

                • The 80+ is a very good point. What I am about to point out is not meant as SEC boasting, it is simply facts.

                  This past signing class, the SEC had 9 of the top 25 signing classes. This included Auburn and Ole Miss (I think Miss St just missed). Ole Miss had 1-5* and 5-4* recruits – Auburn had 1-5* and 13-4*. For comparison, Ohio State had 1-5* and 9-4* and was the highest ranked B10 class (which had 3 classes in the top-25)

                  The SEC dominates recruiting. That is not to say that the B10 or other conferences aren’t bringing in good talent – and this is not to say that Rivals is always correct in their rating (certainly not). But I would say that these ratings are a good indication of players that expect to be starting after a couple of years (and some that expect to start from day one). This is not due to anything they have been misled with mind you, but rather the fact that they have always been the best on their teams. When these guys who have never sat the bench are suddenly faced with a couple years of hard training without the stardom, I do expect a higher transfer rate in search of that time. This is the main reason I have been suprised at the results of the attrition study I keep referencing – I expected as much as 10% more attrition in SEC teams than others. That has so far not been the case.

                  • Really? Those ratings aren’t always of indication of when they will be starting, or if they will be starting. Sure, they are more likely to start, but its not the be-all end all.

                    And you think the people who aren’t 4-5 stars aren’t competitive? Thats pretty insulting to the loads of football players out there. The 2 star kids want to prove just as much as the 5 star kids.

                    • Luke, read my post again. Did I not qualify everythink you said? My point is not that 4-5 stars aren’t competitive, but that (on average) their expectations are higher. How many 2 stars walk on campus expecting to start their freshman year? I’ll grant you that there may be a few – and that they are delusional – but ask the same question about 5 stars. I would wager that most of them expect to be playing if not starting by the end of their freshman year – regardless of what the coaches tell them.

              • Bama does have an indoor facility, but as the games are played outdoors, they generally don’t use it to avoid heat. Only rain.

  17. Unrelated to oversigning and common use of deflection.

  18. http://espn.go.com/blog/sec/post/_/id/23626/on-the-move-in-the-sec

    Per ESPN, Bama’s attrition sits at 5 (they don’t list Kelly). Notorious non-oversigners Florida and Georgia have 4 and 5 respectively.

    Since we know that Bama is forcing its players out to account for oversigning, why are Florida and Georgia losing a similar amount?

    Perhaps attrition is not tied to oversigning as much as we are led to believe.

    • Are you implying that Blakely, Jenkins, and Ealey were kicked off to make room for others? Furthermore, we’d need to know the overall number that teams sit at before you could make any conclusions. (If) Florida and Georgia are already under the cap and Alabama is at 93, who cares if all teams lose the same amount?

      • No. I’m questioning the accepted canon of this site that transfers from Bama are a result of players being cut. If Bama is on par with Georgia and Florida, how can anyone say this is so when neither the Bulldogs nor the Gators oversign? This dovetails nicely with the study I did on attrition percentages: if oversigning schools suffer the same loss rate as the B10, how can you accuse them of kicking kids off the team without doing the same to the B10? Furthermore, how can you then say that banning oversigning would stop it?

        • I’m interested to look at your attrition rates, are they posted on here?

          • http://oversigning.com/testing/index.php/2011/05/03/bruce-feldman-talks-oversigning/#comments

            I posted it here. I didn’t list every player and reason for leaving, but if you have a question about any particular team, I’ll be glad to show it. Also as I’ve pointed out, feel free to correct me if I’m misrepresenting anything.

            • Well written and you definitely put a lot of work in, so thanks for that. I think what I take issue with is the analysis of recruiting over a four year span opposed to a one year span. In my opinion, a kid transferring out in October, December, or even February is different than a kid transferring out in June or anytime after spring ball. Since Alabama is more transparent right now than any other school, especially on this site, I’ll use them as an example.

              If a kid is pissed about playing time, they are most likely pissed between the months of August and December when they are enduring brutally tough practices and riding pine. Why wouldn’t Alabama’s kids transfer then, when frustration is at its highest? Instead I’m led to believe that they continue to practice and fight hard while sitting on the pine, finish out the second semester, do spring ball, then just quit at the last minute and transfer right before the new season? It’s the intent that bothers me. If everyone agrees with Josh and Bama came in at 96 schollies for the 2011 class, there is no doubt that 11 people will transfer due to playing time, not make grades, or get in trouble with the law. If they were at 91 schollies there’s no doubt that 6 players will transfer due to playing time, not make grades, or get in trouble with the law. There would never be a situation where only 10 or 5 guys satisfied the above criteria.

              I’m an Iowa fan so I’ll use them as an example as well since they appear to have high attrition rates over a four year span. Off the top of my head I know three Iowa guys who have left the team since seasons end: Ferguson, who would’ve competed for a starting DT spot; Lowe, for rhabdo; and Coe for grades. (There may be more). Lowe would not have competed and Coe was our #1 recruit for last years class so no way he was getting pushed out. Iowa had 26 or 28 openings coming into this season (can’t remember), and came up several short of that.

              The overall point is that even if Iowa’s attrition rate is high, it’s not because they’re getting pushed out b/c Iowa is never near the 85 number. They would have no reason to push someone out. A team that consistently goes over 85 does have reason to push players out.

              The most important factors in looking at oversigning in my opinion:
              1. At what point in the year are players transferring or being booted?
              2. Total number of players transferring or being booted.
              3. Number of walkons given schollies

              I’m sure that’s brutally hard data to find, and perhaps people take issue with those factors. To me that’s the easiest way to find natural attrition and intent

              • If a kid is pissed about playing time, they are most likely pissed between the months of August and December when they are enduring brutally tough practices and riding pine. Why wouldn’t Alabama’s kids transfer then, when frustration is at its highest? Instead I’m led to believe that they continue to practice and fight hard while sitting on the pine, finish out the second semester, do spring ball, then just quit at the last minute and transfer right before the new season?

                First off, nobody transfers in the months you ask about because the season is going on, and partly because I doubt any coach will even discuss a transfer at that time. Go read the following article, specifically the part about the Goode transfer. I imagine that is the case with many of the guys that transfer out in the summer.

                Most of the time we’re very aware. I meet with all the players in January, I meet with all of them after spring practice. … In some cases, like (Demetrius) Goode’s already graduated, and it was really important for him to play and he told me that in January and said ‘Coach, I’m going to go through the spring and work my tail off, but if it looks like I’m not going to play very much, I’d like to go my fifth year somewhere I can play a lot. Are you OK with that?’ I said absolutely. I understand your circumstance and I appreciate and respect what is important to you in having a positive college experience.”
                [emphisis mine]

                http://www.crimsontidezone.com/?p=16045

                Most of the time, the players have been in the process of transferring for quite a while, but it just hasn’t become public knowledge until now. Does it not cross your mind, or will you not allow the possibility that Saban knows who is wanting to transfer when he signs the new players? Of course he gets several to agree to grayshirt if needed in case some don’t transfer as expected, but if you have a guy telling you beforehand that he wants to transfer if it looks like he won’t get playing time after spring, what do you do? Serious question (for you too Josh). Do you sign an extra player (with a grayshirt offer), just accept that you will most likely be one player short this year (on top of any others that leave), or tell him to hit the road now? Seems to me Saban did right by the kid, while properly assuring his roster stays full of scholarship athletes.

                The overall point is that even if Iowa’s attrition rate is high, it’s not because they’re getting pushed out b/c Iowa is never near the 85 number. They would have no reason to push someone out.

                My point exactly! How can you show that Alabama’s attrition is due to oversigning when other schools that have no reason to push kids out lose kids just as badly? See, Josh only focuses on Bama here – only pointing out players leaving there. By doing so, he can make it sound like it is much worse than anywhere else – but the problem is that it is not. Does it not anger (probably not the best word, but you get the point) you that Iowa has so few scholarship players? Would you not like to see a more full roster of guys worthy of a Div 1 scholarship on your team? If Iowa had oversigned by 5 or 6 (your numbers from above, 3 spots over 25 and 3 transfers since), they would not have such low numbers, yet would not have forced anybody out – right? Why can this not be the case at Alabama? Why can Bama not be using wise management practices?

                1. I don’t see where this really matters. If a player is not going to contribute and if coaches really cut kids like accused here, it really doens’t matter when – goes back to my argument that the B10 rule doesn’t prevent “cutting”, it just moves it up in the year.

                2. This is not relevant. If one teams signs 20 guys and loses 4, while another signs 25 but loses 5, the second obviously lost more but they both lost the same percentage. If the average attrition percentage among everybody is 20%, how is the second any worse? (thus my study)

                3. I don’t really understand where this comes in, but I would like to point out that by giving a senior walk-on a scholarship when he is about to graduate, the school assures that its APR will be higher. I should say that this is how I currently understand it – I’m trying to verify that it works that way so correct me if I’m wrong. Seems like a rather unsavory incentive to do this practice – if your team is having trouble, just sign a few walk-ons every year until things turn around.

      • “Who cares if all teams lose the same amount?”

        People utterly uninterested in the truth and morality of the situation.

  19. The rhetoric of this web site is having an effect on me that I did not suspect.
    I’ve never been an Alabama fan, but neither have I been an Alabama hater. The rants of Jost and
    others are beginning to stir my sympathy for the Criimson Tide. Of course, I don’t want my alma mater
    to lose to the Tide, but if any other school is going to win the SEC Chanpionship – and then smash the witless Buckeyes for the BCS championship, let the Tide do it.

    • I’m the same way. I’m defending ‘Bama because the attacks are unjust and hypocritical.

    • Octavian, this blog really helps me understand how it is that so much hatred has built up for the Buckeyes and their fans. It’s obvious to me, but seemingly not to everyone for some reason, that the SOLE purpose of this site is to “bring down” one team. Well we know that changing oversigning isn’t going to do that, and what has happened to the Buckeyes since Josh started this site? What they have been doing in that program for YEARS is 100 times worse than oversigning. I personally hope that they shut the whole program down, and I’d love to think that the arrogance of Josh is emblematic of the whole downfall.

      • Easy there Headscratcher. While the elitism of many B10 guys is admittedly annoying I’m sure the rabid SEC fanbase is equally annoying – especailly with the last several years’ dominance of the College Football scene. And while what the Sweatervest, OSU, and B10 office have done here is reprehensible, it is not any worse than Alabama during the Albert Means affair. Say what you want about Fulmer and his vendetta against Bama, the fact remains that they were paying players – and it went to the top. OSU should get the same type punishment Bama did for that – and that is plenty to mire any program in mediocraty for nealy a decade. Your wishing for their ultimate demise is a bit far fetched and comes across spitefull.

        • We have our fair share of idiots in the SEC. In fact if you tune into the Paul Finebaum Radio network you can hear a few of them right now.

          • Oh, I love Finebaum – I’ve listened to him for probably 10 years on and off. He has the uncanny ability to piss off everybody, but still manage to keep them listening.

        • Alabama’s compliance officer in the wake of that scandal earned a seat on the NCAA COI and ultimately became its chair. Doubt we’ll ever see Archie in that position.

          I have to be honest… IF the things being reported in Columbus turn out to be accurate, then this is the worst I’ve seen since the SWC days. I didn’t follow the Means case at the time, but I’ve heard plenty from Alabama fans since, and I don’t have any illusions that their perspective was a tad biased. So – not attempting to compare cases on any other basis than my subjective impression of the media fecal-storm.

          • I was actually thinking about the Means case the other day and thinking the lessons learned from that case may be part of the reason Tressel made the choices he did.

            Alabama officials were less than cooperative in the previous case that involved Antonio Langham in 1993. The cooperated completely in the Means case, with the assistance of Gene Marsh, who later moved to the NCAA compliance position you refer to above. The NCAA even gave Alabama glowing kudos for how cooperative they were. Then turned around hammered Alabama far worse in the Means case than the Langham case.

            Many Alabama fans felt Marsh threw Bama under the bus or at least gave them very bad advice. Marsh’s excellent work in defending Alabama was rewarded with a position in the NCAA compliance department.

            Perhaps Tressel learned from the Means case and thought he was better off keeping his mouth shut rather than cooperating. What they don’t know won’t hurt me mentality. The NCAA certainly has shown that cooperating gets you no credit.

            Ironically, I heard Tressel hired Marsh, who is now in private practice, to represent him before the NCAA. Later Tressel resigned, not sure if that was at the advice of Marsh or not, but there are some strange coincidences going on.

            • That was actually my theory on USC and Garrett. Either he thought USC was untouchable, or he figured he had nothing to lose. If the NCAA thinks your compliance guy is good enough to run their COI and yet they still hammer you, what’s the point of compliance?

              They definitely altered that equation last summer, however.

              • I think USC’s position was “why admit to anything, prove it.” Unfortunately for them, there was enough evidence to hit them hard. But there is no telling what was missed by the NCAA. With they magnitude of the violations they had and the number of 5 stars they had, it is reasonable to assume there was likely similar violations elsewhere. But then again it could have been a couple of rogues running wild. We will likely never know for sure.

                • Until Reggie’s money starts to run low, then we’ll see the book. Maybe he can be CFB’s Jose Canseco. Or perhaps Pryor will go that route if he can’t make the transition to the NFL.

        • Not sure it’s spiteful, but it is most likely a direct by-product of watching this guy try to take down a program while his own was crumbling and burning due to far worse. But the REAL kicker is that all this time he has been preaching to SEC fans and holding up his own coach as a beacon of integrity, it turns out the guy was as bad as any jackleg that has ever had the reins at an SEC school, and that includes Jackie Sherill.

        • Good point Catch 5. As an Alabama fan, let me be the first to say that we can be quite annoying. However, I think the overall sentiment is that those who cast the first stone should beware of their own shaky foundation.

          Saban is a chronic rule-bender, and we Alabama fans would be naive to think otherwise. With that said, those who stand back and point the finger and pretend to be able to identify the good guys and the bad guys need to realize that every one of us lives in the gray area.

          If I believed this site was a good faith effort to accurately and fairly address the oversigning issue, then I would have no problem with it, and I would instead enjoy the opportunity to debate the issue. However, most of the responses that I have read have reeked of moral superiority, and the coverage has been targeted and conclusory throughout.

          Ultimately, this site’s fatal flaw is that its information is insufficient. The authors cannot claim to know which players are on scholarship and which are not. In fact, it cannot even confirm how many Alabama players are on scholarship at a given time. I understand that this lack of information is not the site’s fault since Alabama refuses to provide that information, but that is no excuse for blindly printing stories with no semblance of authoritative value.

          To the authors of this site, I have a yes or no question. Was Greg McElroy on scholarship last year? Surely this is an obvious answer, right? After all, he was the starting QB and one of the most important players on the team last year, he had to be on scholarship, didn’t he? Maybe he was. But what would prevent his extremely wealthy dad from paying his tuition for the good of the team, especially in light of the fact that McElroy would soon be making more than enough money to pay for it? The point is, without knowing the facts, this site does not have anything to offer other than a regurgitation of recruiting numbers and player departures.

          As for Headscratcher, Octavian, and Charlie9, I must say it is impressive for someone with no allegiance to Alabama seeing this site for what it really is.

          • I disagree that he’s a “chronic rule-bender”. He does everything he can within the letter of the law. Does that mean finding loopholes that others don’t sometimes? Yep.

            But the ONLY time he’s been involved with any NCAA trouble in his career was the textbook nonsense, and it’s hard to say he had anything to do with that. It all started on the track team (allegedly) and spread to other SAs.

            I do agree with the balance of your post, though.

            • Which is to say, he’s a spectacularly unethical person.

              A person of ethical integrity doesn’t hide in “no one knows my numbers.” He doesn’t hide behind unnecessary document redacting. He doesn’t lie about his having no say in medical DQ decisions. He doesn’t kick injured students off the team simply to clear more roster space. He doesn’t lie about grayshirted students by saying they knew they would be grayshirted “at the time of their commitment.” He doesn’t lie about cut players having been removed for undisclosed violations. He doesn’t use anonymous sources inside his program to stir up media and fan pressure on players he’s wanting to transfer to weaker schools. He doesn’t pretend extremely competitive scholarships predominantly awarded to working class or poorer black Southerners asked to participate in an extremely dangerous sport should be treated the exact same as far more greatly plentiful academic scholarships that are far less demanding to maintain.

              Nick Saban is an extremely unethical man. And he works with the full support of an institution completely indifferent to his utter lack of basic ethics.

              • A person of ethical integrity doesn’t hide anonymously attacking the character of someone he no personal knowledge of with not evidence of alleged wrong doing.

                So can we assume that you have unique insight and behind the scenes access to Nick Saban and the workings of the Alabama program?

            • “He does everything he can within the letter of the law. Does that mean finding loopholes that others don’t sometimes? Yep”

              This is what I mean by chronic rule-bender. By definition rule-bender (as opposed to breaker) acts within the rules. I don’t mean it as a derogatory term at all. In fact, unlike Texas_Dawg, I have no interest in making ethical determinations about something that I have no knowledge of.

  20. I have a question. Maybe some of you that have been around this site longer can answer. (Or perhaps Josh can, although he appears to avoid the debate from what I can see. I find that curious since it is his site.)

    If we could do away with over-signing tomorrow how would that prevent any of the “abuses” to SAs? How would things be better for the SA?

    Coaches can still put them on medical, they can still run them off, they can still “cut” them as they have been accused. The only two differences I can see is the timing (before signing day) and it would do away with or reduce the need for gray shirting, (although gray shirting would still be legal by NCAA bylaws).

    So what exactly is it that proponents of doing away with over-signing want to achieve?

    • Not an exhaustive list, and not necessarily in order.

      1) Create the perception that the B1G puts academics above athletics, while the SEC cares only about athletics (“the college ranking” argument).
      2) Create the perception that some conferences never, ever cut kids, while some conferences do it all the time (“because that’s the only explanation for those signing numbers” argument).
      3) Create the perception that the signing numbers represent a massive competitive advantage (Mr. SEC hit this one hard earlier this week).
      4) Create the perception that the fans and administrators in some conferences enable a “win-at-all-costs” attitude through a cultural depravity unknown outside the borders of states home to Southeastern conference schools (because stereotypes based on where you were born, rather than your skin color or religion, are perfectly acceptable).

      So — is oversigning a convenient vehicle for an ulterior motive, as Headscratcher suggests? Some would argue that it doesn’t matter – that J’s put a spotlight on a problem and that people who think he’s being disingenuous spotlight related difficulties in the B1G, with the overall effect being raised awareness.

      As for the flip side of that argument, I’ve been arguing that the B1G > SEC focus exposed his credibility to B1G scandals (though I could not have predicted 11 kids in the hospital or SMU-II at the time). It also unnecessarily further divides two groups of fans who actually have a lot in common. If SEC and B1G fans got together behind something, they could push through some real changes. But this conference pissing match wastes most of that potential energy.

    • Gary,

      Josh has addressed these questions many times in the past. Just so you know.

      Not speaking for him, but to answer your questions:

      Removing oversigning limits the room that coaches willing to commit the unethical behaviors you describe would have significantly less room to operate than they have with oversigning as an option. They would have to make their purges a lot earlier in the process (thereby losing access to these pawns earlier in the game) and would have a much smaller cap to work with than they have had in past years.

      Yes, as Gene Chizik and Auburn are showing, highly unethical coaches at weak institutions can still exploit working class students for their gain by kicking them out of school (via removing their scholarships for unexplained reasons: http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2011/03/post_204.html) or can reward injured students with forced removals from their teams via weak or no oversight of med DQs, but removing oversigning tightens their window and number for doing this, thus making it easier for outside observers and interested media members to highlight and condemn such bad behavior, helping pressure officials into further tightening controls over such practices.

      • Your smug tone doesn’t enhance your point. Oops, wait a second, you didn’t really have a point anywhere in that erroneous ramble.

      • Texas_Dawg
        The problem with this position is that it does nothing to prevent any of the things you or Josh call abuses. In fact it only accelerates any negative actions on SAs rather than do anything to protect SAs. It does little more than change the time table.

        And clearly changing the time table is not going to change the end result as the link you provide clearly points out. You see Chizik’s alleged unethical behavior and exploitation took place prior to spring training (I guess I am old school, as I prefer some proof before I am willing to accuse someone of inappropriate behavior.)

        If protecting SAs is the goal then why not advocate rules that will protect them rather than insure coachs move sooner to “exploit” them?

    • I believe the stance is that some D-1 prospects are only thinking of the glitz and glamour of a major program and not the potential risks of choosing one school that may cut them (Alabama seems to be the point of focus for this site). By eliminating the ability to hand out more scholarships than they can realistically bring on with the number of players that will be on scholarship the next year, limiting or preventing oversigning will a) ensure that fewer players are pushed out of a promised scholarship and into the arms of an academically inferior school and b) limit the ability of coaches to push these players away in order to clear room for potential top performers.

      The sad truth is that this happens in other sports. I wrestled in college (two years), and was promised a scholarship out of high school that I never received. My girlfriend was a soccer player, and many of her teammates were on half scholarships or had them revoked completely when their performance slipped badly (in order to bring in more freshmen). It happens in non-revenue generating sports, and oversight is needed in every sport.

      The reason this is such a big issue is because no one follows these sports (wrestling or soccer). Everyone follows College Football. These are supposed to be academic institutions, providing an education first and entertainment second. If a team is kicking out players for poor play, then they’ve become something else. But, money rules the world and draws our attention so we’ll continue to argue for/against it and never see eye to eye.

      • a) ensure that fewer players are pushed out of a promised scholarship and into the arms of an academically inferior school and

        How? What is keeping them from pushing them out between the bowl games and NSD? We are talking about players that aren’t playing anyway, so why not kick them off whenever and replace them the following year.

        b) limit the ability of coaches to push these players away in order to clear room for potential top performers.

        Same response. How does it do this exactly?

        • A) Hence my comments on more oversight. Universities need to act like Universities and not NFL D-League. The OTL reports on LSU should have been a big deal, but weren’t. That sucks for players who get promised something and given something else. That should not be allowed to happen, and this is a step in the right direction to get rid of that. It doesn’t completely fix the problem, but it’s a nice first step.

          B) You’ll have some natural academic/playing time attrition… whether that’s 15 scholarships worth (100-85), I don’t know. Limiting to 100 signees (over four years) for 85 scholarship spots means far, far fewer players can be cut. There’s still some wiggle room, but it severely limits the number of kids that would be cut. It’s not a final solution, but it’s a move in the right direction.

  21. Saban stated Thursday that Corey Grant’s decision to transfer was a “surprise,” and that Petey Smith’s was not because he “had some behavioral issues that he had to work through academically.” Here is the article: http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2011/06/saban_calls_rb_corey_grants_de.html

    Question: if Saban had forced both of these players out as alleged by this site, why didn’t Grant publically say, “No it wasn’t a surprise. Saban forced me out,” or why didn’t Smith say, “Saban’s a liar. I didn’t have any behavioral or academic issues. Saban forced me out.”

    But neither player even hinted anything of the sort in numerous public interviews. Both said it was playing time. This makes it clear that the owner of this site doesn’t care what the facts really are which should seriously call into question his motives .

    • Josh’s MO:

      Sling shit without regard for its truthfulness.

      When confronted with something that directly refutes it, he ignores that completely, and continues to spout the same garbage he spouted before. What is the opposite of journalistic integrity?

    • Hey Josh, when can we expect to see this article highlighted?

      Good link Richard, there are some very revealing quotes there. My favorite:

      In some cases, like Goode’s already graduated, it was really important for him to play. He told me that in January. He said, ‘Coach, I’m going to go through the spring, I’m going to work my tail off, but if it doesn’t look like I’m going to get to play much, I’d like to go my fifth year somewhere where I can play a lot. Are you OK with that?’ I said, ‘Absolutely. I understand your circumstance and I appreciate and respect what is important to you in having a positive college experience

      Do you really want to keep leading people to believe that he (or even the others listed in your post) was run off? How in the world can you insinuate that Goode was done wrong in any way, shape or form?

      One other note. Goode has always been buried on the depth chart. He has seen some time, but always in mop-up duty, yet he miraculously made it through four years and graduated without being axed from the team. How could that have happened if Saban is constantly cutting everyone he can to make room for fresh talent?

    • “Both said it was playing time.”

      20-year-olds often make really stupid mistakes that greatly harm their future earnings capacity. They are also often highly susceptible to being talked into such really bad decisions, especially by millionaire professionals who have been allowed by their institutions to be heavily incentivized to pressure students into such terrible decisions.

      That you ignore these realities makes it clear that you care nothing about the ethics of the behaviors in question and care only about getting to see your chosen football team win more games.

      • Because TD gets to define both the problem and the solution. You can either agree with him or not, which makes you either good or evil, but debate isn’t allowed. X or Y, always. Total binary thinker.

      • Goode has graduated and wanted to use his 5th year to play some meaningful football.
        Grant requested a transfer to Saban’s suprise (most think he’s heading to Auburn)
        Smith is apparently having academic troubles.

        Which of these is Saban taking advantage of? Saban says he thought Grant had a roll to play with the team and wanted him to stay. What more can he do if the kid wants to leave?

        I agree that these kids sometimes make poor choices, but it is ultimately up to them to live their lives. Part of the coach’s roles is to offer advice and give them information to make the best choice possible. You, not knowing actual facts about what has been said or done, make very questionable accusations about the situation. Ironically, you would probably say Saban is taking advantage of them even if they weren’t transferring – you could argue that he is hoarding the talent to keep them away from competition (some already make this argument), and that he should assist them in transferring if they want playing time.

        TD, you are a troll, nothing more. The sad part is that you actually understand this issue more than most believe. I happened upon an article one day that came from Georgia somewhere. I scanned the comments section and found several comments from Georgia fans and you (or someone else using your moniker). The subject was oversigning, and you were actually correcting the other commentators who didn’t really understand the pro-oversigning stance. You weren’t advocating it, but just putting it in proper context. That proved to me that you come here just to agitate – thus you are a troll. Some trolls don’t know any better – you could actually contribute to the conversation if you wanted, but that is not your desire.

        • “Saban says he thought Grant had a roll to play with the team and wanted him to stay.”

          LMAO! Of course he did.

          Still 6 more purges to go…

          • Did you read the article? It’s right there, he did say it. Surely you, the puveyor of all things ethical wouldn’t disregard such a statement without proof, nor attact someone’s character without cause – that would be highly unethical as I’m sure you know. Since you wouldn’t do such a thing, can you give support to any of your accusations against Saban? I know I’ve asked this of you several times now, but you must have simply overlooked them as they have as yet gone unanswered.

      • TD, you set your thesis up with “20-year-olds often make really stupid mistakes….” Real deep thought there, but your problem is that there’s not the slightest bit of evidence that any mistakes were made by anyone in the cases cited. Not one iota, and btw, keep in mind what the point of this site is — that players are forced out to make room new talent. That is the point of this site — not that 20 years olds make stupid mistakes, and I’ve just given you evidence that the ‘forced out” allegation is patently false and you ignored it and came back with a broad brush argument that 20 somethings make stupid mistakes. To quote Charlie Sheen, “well duh!” And, I hate to break it to you but, 30ish, 40ish and 50ish somethings make stupid mistakes that hurt your careers as well, and whose fault is that? I don’t know how it is where you live, but where I do, that’s life. Nobody’s being taken advantage of when a HS athlete is given a choice to play football at a major program. The kid can pick and choose which program he wants and then it’s up to him to make it. Goode decided late that he wasn’t going to and Grant decided early, but both could have chosen to stay and that was all that was owed to them.

      • “20-year-olds often make really stupid mistakes that greatly harm their future earnings capacity. They are also often highly susceptible to being talked into such really bad decisions, especially by millionaire professionals who have been allowed by their institutions to be heavily incentivized to pressure students into such terrible decisions”

        YAY! A fairer critique of Tressel! Do you guys have any idea how much money Tressel cost Pryor by trying to force Pryor to remain for his senior year? Forgoing the draft costs how much? I’m guessing that it’s going to cost the average poster’s salary for several years. TRESSEL did that FOR SURE! You can claim that Saban pressured one these kids, but there is no proof–in fact, there is proof against it. Tressel screwed Pryor out of lots of money.

  22. Hey, he’s a Bama fan like any other.

    He knows what’s going on but has no interest in doing anything that might threaten to stop it.

    Just how Alabama rolls and always has.

    • If you’re referring to Cecil Hurt with that comment, then let’s just add it to ever-lengthening list of moronic statements you have made on these threads. Have you been reading the Cleveland and Columbus papers recently? Yeah, those reporters aren’t saying anything bad about the Buckeyes, because they’re Ohio State fans, and they won’t do anything to stop the bad suff the administration is doing.

      Idiot.

      • Huh?

        How in the world did you work OSU into that statement? Bizarre.

        Hurt doesn’t ask because he just isn’t that interested. Why? Because he’s a fan.

        • Yeah, you’re right. Only Big Ten writers are objective. Please say something else so inane that mocking it is the only appropriate response.

        • Saban always gets asked about the roster and numbers. He chooses not to answer. Cecil Hurt has gone on record saying he thinks that Saban should disclose more information about the Alabama roster. Hurt has also said he disagrees with the legal excuses the university makes. You like to write quite a lot for someone so misinformed.

    • It appears that you are the one ignoring the evidence. That seems to be the MO of those clinging to these accusations in spite of the facts.

  23. It seems that you would be OK with Smith, Grant and Goode leaving if it were before the spring practice. Why is it OK to cut them before but not after?

    • Because cutting them after reduces their window of opportunity to land with other programs who might have had more openings – so the argument goes. On the flip side, cutting them over the holiday break gives them all of a week or two to land on their feet at another school in time for the spring semester. Pluses and minuses both ways, seems to me.

      • I realize you aren’t that stupid, so why would you pretend that is an argument Josh would make?

        Actually, never mind. I know exactly why you would do that.

      • Also reduces their chance of staying on the team. For the record, I don’t believe players are cut for performance reasons. I have yet to see any evidence of that just a bunch of speculation.

    • I don’t believe Josh would be OK with their being pressured to transfer to weaker schools in order to clear roster space at any point.

      • Than where’s his article addressing the Sam Longo transfer?

        I would guess that Josh’s problem with the later transfer has more to do withwhat he referrs to as try outs that occur during the spring and the competitive advantage that apparently gives. In Josh’s eyes, Goode went through a try out this spring and got cut.

      • TD, are the you the mouthpiece for “Josh?” You seem to know how he thinks and what he would say in every situation. Can he not speak for himself? Are you guys “significant others?” Just wondering since you speak for him so much.

        Anyway, Alabama just took the commitment of Casey Gladney from South Carolina. He had no offers from in-state schools because of academics. It seems his home schools backed off because they were afraid of him not qualifying, but it’s being reported that Alabama staff told him that his offer is conditional upon improving his academics over the summer.

        http://www.rollbamaroll.com/

        Sounds pretty straight forward and honest to me. Sounds like this young man not only got an opportunity that 99 percent of high schoolers don’t get, but he also got some motivation to work harder on his academics. Now were exactly is the evil in that? Should Alabama have not given this kid an opportunity? Enquiring minds want to know.

        • Nah, I wouldn’t hold your breath waiting on that one. Perhaps my biggest complaint on this site is the way it seems to adhere to the worst aspects of modern partisan political discourse. Once someone has been identified as one of “the bad guys” or on the other side of the argument, they get next to no credit for anything. Like it would be a great personal disgrace to acknowledge someone on the other side has a point or that maybe some of these coaches aren’t *quite* (like maybe by even just a smidgen) as devious and underhanded as they’ve been made out to be.

          Pet peeve of mine.

          • Funny that was exactly what I was thinking. Politicians always seems to be advocating something “for the children,” or “for the poor,” when in fact most politiicans don’t give two toots about those issues — they only use “the poor” to stay in power. I think that’s a perfect analogy of this site. They really don’t do it “for the kids.” They do it because it gives them notoriety. It’s not about the kids. It’s about them, and when confronted with inconvenient facts, they just ignore them and continue to spew unsubstantiated venom at their targets.

            • There are definitely people who’ve clung to this site for exactly those reasons, but I’m not ready to start casting those aspersions on Josh yet. I just think he sometimes does his site a disservice with the way he approaches the issues and the greater debate. I’m still choosing to believe his intentions are genuine and it’s only his methods that are ocassionally fallow and problematic.

      • Joshua wrote “The real issue is that these transfers are coming after spring ball.” That’s why I asked. I didn’t expect an answer from him, but I thought I’d give him a chance to clarify his thoughts. Joshua seems OK with players leaving before signing day.

  24. I was also curious when Josh was going to post an article on how much Ohio State self reports. That is one of the funniest misconceptions that has been perpetuated by their fanbase (i.e. “Don’t worry guuys, OSU self-reports. Our compliance department is all over this.”). Just one of the many reasons the fanbase is so incredibly deluded, which is part of the foundation Josh has built this site upon. And it crumbled just two short weeks ago.

  25. Mike Bowman is now gone and Sentimore is going to transfer. There is another bama rumor that Tana Patrick is gone also. The cutdown continues.

  26. I’m sure when they get to 85 everyone’s grades and off-field issues will straighten out.

  27. Corey Grant is walking on at Auburn. In the article below – partially behind a pay wall – he had this to say about his transfer:

    “I think sometimes you go to a place at the wrong time,” Grant said. “Alabama is a great place. I learned a lot of things. I got better in a lot of areas I needed to improve on.

    “I don’t leave Alabama with any hard feelings. I just felt like I would be a better fit in Auburn’s offense”

    He goes on to talk about how he felt that he would fit better in Auburn’s spread offense then Alabama’s pro-style offense.

    http://auburn.rivals.com/barrier_noentry.asp?ReturnTo=&sid=&script=content.asp&cid=1229316&fid=&tid=&mid=&rid=

    Contrast Grant’s comments to those of James Jackson:

    “They had an oversigning issue,” Jackson said. “They had to free up a few scholarships, and coach (Jim) Tressel told me I probably wouldn’t play and maybe Ohio State wasn’t the place for me.”

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jJV6WB1P2oLlT5MOCZ7xsXkLlsHQ?docId=5dc5900e4c1742f1abef3def18ab92e5


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