Go here and read this for yourself. Solid. Be sure to partake in the comment section as well.
Maybe this is the answer.
Side note: this is the least amount of effort ever put into a post on this site - ever. Goodnight.
After the jump there is a copy of our master table for the recruiting numbers from 2002 to 2010. We have inserted a column to record the Fulmer Cup Points associated with each school. For those of you who are not familiar with the Fulmer Cup, it was created by the brain-trust at EDSBS, Orson Swindle. Wiki!!!
Now that we have that out of the way, disclaimer time:
First, before anyone gets upset or questions our credibility for using the Fulmer Cup data, we know exactly what it is and we know that it is not a complete police blotter for every single school in the BCS. No such thing exists. It is however, fairly accurate for arriving at somewhat plausible generalizations. For example, if a certain schools has high Fulmer Cup points, you could take the time and track down the police records and validate that there has been a fairly high level of crime associated with that school during the period in question.
So the generalization goes as follows: higher points = higher criminal activity; lower points = lower criminal activity.
Second, the awarding of points in the Fulmer Cup is done in such a way to determine which schools have the highest amount of criminal activity, not which school commits the worst crime. If you want to know exactly how it works, go here.
Third, Fulmer Cup points are only awarded to players on the roster who commit crimes during the off season. This is very important for two reasons: 1.) this is usually when you see all of the attrition we talk about on this site, 2.) there could be crimes that happen during the season that would attribute to a school's profile of having a lot of criminal activity on the football team, but because it happened in the off season it didn't count. Therefore, teams with 0 points might have had a problem during the season that is not reflected here. Remember, the Fulmer Cup only tracks criminal activity during the off season. That said, we will still work under the assumption that the Fulmer Cup points are a fairly accurate depiction of a school's profile. If you disagree and have proof of a school with TONS of criminal activity during the regular season, send it in and we'll post it.
The first thing we notice in looking at the numbers is that in the middle of our table there is no rhyme or reason to anything. For example, Arizona State and Washington State, they both signed the EXACT same number of players during the 2002 - 2010 period, they are both in the same conference, and yet Washington State has 27 Fulmer Cup points and Arizona State has 0. At first glance, you could look at that and draw the conclusion that there is absolutely no connection between oversigning and off season crime by the football players.
However, when you look at the top 10 teams and the bottom 10 teams the picture becomes very clear. The top 10 schools combined for a total of 188 Fulmer Cup points, while the bottom 10 teams combined for 80 points, 38 of which came from one school Penn State. Take out Penn State, the statistical anomaly, and you are looking at 188 points to 42 points. Now we are getting somewhere. And it makes sense.
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